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#Ernesto expected to be Post-Trop by tonight. #99L falling apart as it enters "the graveyard" of E Caribbean. Watching #Lane in E Pac.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 314 (Nate) , Major: 332 (Maria) Florida - Any: 342 (Irma) Major: 342 (Irma)
51.9N 20.0W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1002mb
Moving:
Ene at 35 mph
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Archives 2000s >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

HanKFranK
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
shared ponderings
      Sat Sep 21 2002 12:09 PM

izzy's getting pushed only a little, staying between upper lows. big question now is how far west the storm gets before the ridge to the east rebuilds and hooks it up with a shortwave. my thoughts have changed just a little.
three major differences with the nhc official:
1)system will probably move right along the yucatan coast.. i mean something like 20 miles inland to offshore. land intereaction has a history of slowing the forward movement (it took a really long time to cross western cuba yesterday).. think the nhc track is too fast. not thinking the storm will get west of 92w, but yeah probably 90. think the storm will wobble along its path, but smoothed should resemble nhc.
2)intensity.. naturally mine is lower, since i think the storm will be interacting with land more. think it stays in the 2-3 range through 72hr, except maybe it gets to 4 right before approaching the coast tonight.
3)think after 60hr the wsw component is gone, storm should be moving north of west again.
my endgame has changed too.. shifting it westward, focused on the central gulf. se louisiana to the western panhandle now. expect the storm to bend north, but northeast before reaching the coast. expect it to come ashore at category three/four on thursday or friday.
other systems:
1)kyle. should be fully tropical later today, stall and move erratically through 36hr, then next week start sw and eventually west. a couple of the models have it getting under the newfoundland wheel and accelerating west, as lili did in 1990. not quite ready to take it that far, but suffice to say it could be pretty close to bermuda by the middle of next week.
2)92L. this should be a depression tomorrow. it is moving west fairly quickly, and think it will develop slowly as a result. probably enter the caribbean late monday/early tue as tropical storm lili. whether or not it kills itself with forward speed i'm not quite sure. if it doesnt, will be threatening the western caribbean or southeast u.s. a week from now.
3)the bastardi pinwheel. surface low pressure is disorganized and not moving much, but convection has shifted northward yesterday and something may start to gel tomorrow east of the carolinas. this seems less probable than it did thu or fri, but still a chance it could make some late hour organization as it accelerates ahead of a trough off the east coast. as the upper low decays the area southwest of it up to its remnant axis will have to be watched for further activity.
4)east atlantic wave. basically three possibilites. one, it develops and recurves well out to sea early next week. two, it doesnt develop. three, it moves westward and then develops later next week closer to the islands and becomes another nuisance.
so there, two active systems, maybe one or two more before all's said and through with this span. probably a major hurricane landfall between morgan city and fort walton beach as well.
HF 1603z21september

Edited by HanKFranK (Sat Sep 21 2002 12:09 PM)

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Major Hurricane Isidore.... You have to Wander MikeCAdministrator Sat Sep 21 2002 12:09 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Isidore.... You have to Wander Rick   Sat Sep 21 2002 06:19 PM
. * * West is best Frank P   Sat Sep 21 2002 07:02 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Isidore.... You have to Wander andy1tom   Sat Sep 21 2002 02:32 PM
. * * Re: Mesovortex Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sat Sep 21 2002 02:51 PM
. * * Re: Mesovortex Rasvar   Sat Sep 21 2002 03:06 PM
. * * Re: Mesovortex Anonymous   Sat Sep 21 2002 03:13 PM
. * * Re: Mesovortex Ricreig   Sat Sep 21 2002 03:00 PM
. * * stalling Southern4sure   Sat Sep 21 2002 03:00 PM
. * * Re: Mesovortex Joe   Sat Sep 21 2002 02:57 PM
. * * Re: Mesovortex HanKFranK   Sat Sep 21 2002 03:24 PM
. * * Re: Mesovortex Jeanine   Sat Sep 21 2002 03:02 PM
. * * Re: Mesovortex MikeCAdministrator   Sat Sep 21 2002 03:22 PM
. * * Ed Dunham MikeCAdministrator   Sat Sep 21 2002 03:27 PM
. * * Re: Ed Dunham Southern4sure   Sat Sep 21 2002 03:32 PM
. * * 13L HanKFranK   Sat Sep 21 2002 03:32 PM
. * * Re: 13L jlauderdal   Sat Sep 21 2002 03:58 PM
. * * FYI - Dvorak 6.0 / 6.0 WOW Steve   Sat Sep 21 2002 04:10 PM
. * * Re: FYI - Dvorak 6.0 / 6.0 WOW Anonymous   Sat Sep 21 2002 04:54 PM
. * * Re: FYI - Dvorak 6.0 / 6.0 WOW Steve   Sat Sep 21 2002 05:00 PM
. * * Re: FYI - Dvorak 6.0 / 6.0 WOW Frank P   Sat Sep 21 2002 05:20 PM
. * * Hey Joe ... you saw it too Frank P   Sat Sep 21 2002 05:26 PM
. * * Re: Hey Joe ... you saw it too joepub1   Sat Sep 21 2002 05:31 PM
. * * 22.1 and 86.3?????? Frank P   Sat Sep 21 2002 05:26 PM
. * * Re: 22.1 and 86.3?????? joepub1   Sat Sep 21 2002 05:52 PM
. * * Re: 22.1 and 86.3?????? Frank P   Sat Sep 21 2002 06:12 PM
. * * NW... I'm positive now Frank P   Sat Sep 21 2002 05:43 PM
. * * Re: FYI - Dvorak 6.0 / 6.0 WOW Joe   Sat Sep 21 2002 05:07 PM
. * * Re: FYI - Dvorak 6.0 / 6.0 WOW joepub1   Sat Sep 21 2002 05:19 PM
. * * Here's something to chew on... Steve   Sat Sep 21 2002 05:06 PM
. * * Re: The Spider is squished again Rasvar   Sat Sep 21 2002 03:27 PM
. * * Re: The Spider is squished again joepub1   Sat Sep 21 2002 03:37 PM
. * * Re: The Spider is squished again joepub1   Sat Sep 21 2002 03:58 PM
. * * Re: Mesovortex Joe   Sat Sep 21 2002 03:10 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Isidore.... You have to Wander joepub1   Sat Sep 21 2002 02:38 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Isidore.... You have to Wander Anonymous   Sat Sep 21 2002 12:44 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Isidore.... You have to Wander BabyCat   Sat Sep 21 2002 12:56 PM
. * * Bad Reporting by Media Justin in Miami   Sat Sep 21 2002 12:43 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Isidore.... You have to Wander scottsvb   Sat Sep 21 2002 11:32 AM
. * * shared ponderings HanKFranK   Sat Sep 21 2002 12:09 PM
. * * Isidore looking classic now... Steve   Sat Sep 21 2002 12:08 PM
. * * Re: Isidore looking classic now... Anonymous   Sat Sep 21 2002 12:38 PM
. * * Preparations done at my house... Steve   Sat Sep 21 2002 12:21 PM
. * * Re: Preparations done at my house... scottsvb   Sat Sep 21 2002 12:39 PM
. * * Re: Preparations done at my house... Mike   Sat Sep 21 2002 02:16 PM
. * * Re: scottsvb's Comments recmod   Sat Sep 21 2002 01:32 PM
. * * Re: scottsvb's Comments Anonymous   Sat Sep 21 2002 01:45 PM
. * * Re: scottsvb's Comments Joe   Sat Sep 21 2002 01:46 PM
. * * nhc 1pm HanKFranK   Sat Sep 21 2002 02:12 PM
. * * NOT MOVING RICKINMOBILE   Sat Sep 21 2002 02:06 PM
. * * Re: NOT MOVING joepub1   Sat Sep 21 2002 02:17 PM
. * * Re: Scottsvb Kevin   Sat Sep 21 2002 01:00 PM
. * * WIndows... Steve   Sat Sep 21 2002 01:27 PM
. * * Re: WIndows... Justin in Miami   Sat Sep 21 2002 02:29 PM
. * * subject of boarding up.... Frank P   Sat Sep 21 2002 01:26 PM
. * * Re: subject of boarding up.... scottsvb   Sat Sep 21 2002 01:30 PM
. * * scott... Steve   Sat Sep 21 2002 01:34 PM
. * * Here are the latest model plots I can find. Steve   Sat Sep 21 2002 01:40 PM
. * * One last note for now before the 1pm update comes out... Steve   Sat Sep 21 2002 01:45 PM
. * * Re: Preparations done at my house... Rasvar   Sat Sep 21 2002 12:58 PM
. * * Re: Preparations done at my house... Justin in Miami   Sat Sep 21 2002 12:38 PM

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