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2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially over. 2018's runs June 1st-Nov 30th, 2018.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 64 (Nate) , Major: 82 (Maria) Florida - Any: 91 (Irma) Major: 91 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
big picture
      Mon Aug 01 2005 07:23 PM

just looking at waves and saying 'oh, that's our next storm' worked between the end of june and the 3rd week of july. since then the formula has changed.. the big expanse of no shear and broad ridging across the basin has broken down into the usual early season rabble of upper troughs.
did a very small amount of research and found that mjo has activated.. the 5-day means show a strengthening dipolar anomaly pattern, with the westpac getting more favorable conditions and conditions worsening in the atlantic (particularly the eastern atlantic). soi has been negative (not strongly so), but it's more than a 3-5 day pulse and is increasing the westerly flow in the atlantic, pushing wave energy north and out along the strengthened upper troughs. mjo can activate and then wink out (like it had been from late may-early july) and may later in the season, but it looks like august will feature the feast-or-famine trends that go with mjo activity. the hurricane-enhancing anomalies will get here just as we enter the historically active part of the season (gfs has been showing more activity in the extended period)... it may take a week, ten days, two or even three weeks.. but when the negative mjo phase gets here later in august watch another flurry of hurricanes come swarming across the atlantic. the phase of mjo runs 40-50 days.. so one would expect 20-25 days of active/inactive at a particular location (though it doesn't ever work that perfectly). assuming the activation of the mitigating phase around july 15-20 (late in the life of emily), the arrival of the catalytic phase should take place somewhere between august 5-15. it'll help if soi goes positive in their sometime.. otherwise it could serve as a hangup and delay the switch. the eastpac is showing signs of life for the first time in a long time... watch for a storm out there to signal the activation of the atlantic about a week later.
as for anything trying to eek through in the meanwhile.. if it isn't in the mid latitudes already or going north/northeast... it probably won't meet much success. activity in the deep tropics should remain suppressed this week. 92L looks better than ever in terms of having a surface circulation... a single exposed low poked out of the convection this morning and has turned NE towards the main blow-up under the narrow upper ridge just east of it... another low-level swirl seems to have peeked out to its north. the shearing upper low is diving sw ahead of it finally, upper ridging should build over the mostly stationary system and give it a chance to spin up. diving shortwaves moving off the east coast should keep it out to sea, however, if it does develop. still a small chance on the troughiness hung near the SE coast, nothing so far.
should be a fairly quiet week, but things should be very different in another week or two.
HF 2323z01august

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* August Begins, a Few Things to Watch MikeCAdministrator Mon Aug 01 2005 07:23 PM
. * * Tropical Wave WX Storm 2005   Tue Aug 02 2005 02:08 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Wave Random Chaos   Tue Aug 02 2005 08:10 AM
. * * Re: August Begins, a Few Things to Watch ROB H   Mon Aug 01 2005 01:54 PM
. * * Re: August Begins, a Few Things to Watch damejune2   Mon Aug 01 2005 02:32 PM
. * * Re: August Begins, a Few Things to Watch adogg76   Mon Aug 01 2005 02:55 PM
. * * Don't count 92L out quite yet (and a few other tidbits) Bloodstar   Mon Aug 01 2005 03:35 PM
. * * Re: Don't count 92L out quite yet (and a few other tidbits) danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 01 2005 03:55 PM
. * * Re: Don't count 92L out quite yet (and a few other tidbits) damejune2   Mon Aug 01 2005 04:28 PM
. * * Re: Don't count 92L out quite yet (and a few other tidbits) Ron Basso   Mon Aug 01 2005 05:54 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Outlook incomplete MapMaster   Mon Aug 01 2005 05:58 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Outlook incomplete Random Chaos   Mon Aug 01 2005 06:01 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Outlook incomplete Old Sailor   Mon Aug 01 2005 08:20 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Outlook incomplete Hurricane Fredrick 1979   Mon Aug 01 2005 08:46 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Outlook incomplete Old Sailor   Mon Aug 01 2005 09:05 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Outlook incomplete Hurricane Fredrick 1979   Mon Aug 01 2005 09:12 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Outlook incomplete Old Sailor   Mon Aug 01 2005 09:13 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Outlook incomplete Random Chaos   Mon Aug 01 2005 09:21 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Outlook incomplete Old Sailor   Mon Aug 01 2005 09:24 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Outlook incomplete Frank P   Mon Aug 01 2005 09:38 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Outlook incomplete Old Sailor   Mon Aug 01 2005 09:48 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Outlook incomplete FlaMommy   Mon Aug 01 2005 10:49 PM
. * * big picture HanKFranK   Mon Aug 01 2005 07:23 PM
. * * Re: big picture Beaumont, TX   Tue Aug 02 2005 09:27 AM
. * * Re: big picture Major7   Tue Aug 02 2005 04:28 PM
. * * Re: big picture ShanaTX   Tue Aug 02 2005 04:42 PM
. * * Re: big picture LI Phil   Tue Aug 02 2005 04:41 PM
. * * Re: big picture Beaumont, TX   Tue Aug 02 2005 05:04 PM
. * * Re: big picture Random Chaos   Tue Aug 02 2005 05:11 PM
. * * Re: big picture ShanaTX   Tue Aug 02 2005 05:22 PM
. * * future harvey LI Phil   Tue Aug 02 2005 05:39 PM
. * * Re: future harvey Random Chaos   Tue Aug 02 2005 06:11 PM
. * * Re: future harvey Storm Cooper   Tue Aug 02 2005 06:19 PM
. * * Re: future harvey Rabbit   Tue Aug 02 2005 05:57 PM
. * * Re: big picture CoalCracker   Tue Aug 02 2005 04:39 PM
. * * noaa's new numbers ftlaudbob   Tue Aug 02 2005 10:06 AM
. * * Re: noaa's new numbers Random Chaos   Tue Aug 02 2005 10:43 AM
. * * Re: noaa's new numbers GuppieGrouper   Tue Aug 02 2005 10:53 AM
. * * Re: noaa's new numbers CoalCracker   Tue Aug 02 2005 11:00 AM
. * * Re: noaa's new numbers GuppieGrouper   Tue Aug 02 2005 11:10 AM
. * * Re: noaa's new numbers GuppieGrouper   Tue Aug 02 2005 11:23 AM
. * * Re: noaa's new numbers MapMaster   Tue Aug 02 2005 11:43 AM
. * * The Bottom Lines danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2005 11:57 AM
. * * Re: The Bottom Lines Big Red Machine   Tue Aug 02 2005 12:38 PM
. * * Re: The Bottom Lines danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2005 01:06 PM
. * * Re: The Bottom Lines Big Red Machine   Tue Aug 02 2005 12:53 PM
. * * Re: The Bottom Lines MapMaster   Tue Aug 02 2005 02:02 PM
. * * Re: The Bottom Lines B.C.Francis   Tue Aug 02 2005 01:05 PM
. * * Re: The Bottom Lines NewWatcher   Tue Aug 02 2005 12:58 PM
. * * Possible Low Beach   Tue Aug 02 2005 01:04 PM
. * * Re: Possible Low danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2005 01:41 PM
. * * Re: Possible Low tornado00   Tue Aug 02 2005 01:43 PM
. * * Re: Possible Low danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2005 02:50 PM
. * * Re: Possible Low HumanCookie   Tue Aug 02 2005 03:03 PM
. * * Re: Possible Low Bloodstar   Tue Aug 02 2005 03:04 PM
. * * Re: Possible Low Big Red Machine   Tue Aug 02 2005 03:02 PM
. * * Bastardi Accu forcast????? B.C.Francis   Tue Aug 02 2005 02:13 PM
. * * Re: Bastardi Accu forcast????? CoalCracker   Tue Aug 02 2005 03:33 PM
. * * Models and TD8 Jamiewx   Tue Aug 02 2005 03:40 PM
. * * Re: Models and TD8 danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2005 03:53 PM
. * * Re: Models and TD8 CoalCracker   Tue Aug 02 2005 04:14 PM
. * * Re: Models and TD8 LI Phil   Tue Aug 02 2005 04:08 PM
. * * Re: Models and TD8 Spoken   Tue Aug 02 2005 05:08 PM
. * * 92L (23N 68W) Bloodstar   Tue Aug 02 2005 02:48 PM
. * * Re: 92L Disconnected system danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2005 03:08 PM
. * * Re: 92L Disconnected system Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Tue Aug 02 2005 03:28 PM
. * * Re: 92L Disconnected system danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2005 03:33 PM
. * * Re: 92L Disconnected system LI Phil   Tue Aug 02 2005 03:30 PM
. * * Re: 92L Disconnected system Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Tue Aug 02 2005 03:31 PM
. * * Re: 92L (23N 68W) zmdz01   Tue Aug 02 2005 03:01 PM
. * * Re: 92L (23N 68W) ShanaTX   Tue Aug 02 2005 03:03 PM
. * * Re: Possible Low Brad in Miami   Tue Aug 02 2005 01:16 PM
. * * Re: The Bottom Lines Big Red Machine   Tue Aug 02 2005 01:01 PM
. * * Re: 2002 'below normal'? MapMaster   Tue Aug 02 2005 11:54 AM
. * * Re: noaa's new numbers GuppieGrouper   Tue Aug 02 2005 11:13 AM
. * * Re: noaa's new numbers B.C.Francis   Tue Aug 02 2005 11:29 AM
. * * Re: noaa's new numbers Brad in Miami   Tue Aug 02 2005 11:42 AM
. * * Re: noaa's new numbers MapMaster   Tue Aug 02 2005 11:03 AM
. * * Re: noaa's new numbers ftlaudbob   Tue Aug 02 2005 11:08 AM
. * * Re: noaa's new numbers Bloodstar   Tue Aug 02 2005 11:08 AM
. * * Re: Recon and CYCLONE MapMaster   Tue Aug 02 2005 11:02 AM
. * * Re: Recon and CYCLONE NewWatcher   Tue Aug 02 2005 01:09 PM
. * * Re: Recon and CYCLONE RyanRedCross1   Tue Aug 02 2005 01:29 PM
. * * Re: noaa's new numbers CoalCracker   Tue Aug 02 2005 10:37 AM
. * * Re: noaa's new numbers B.C.Francis   Tue Aug 02 2005 10:25 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Outlook incomplete abyrd   Mon Aug 01 2005 07:05 PM
. * * Re: Don't count 92L out quite yet (and a few other tidbits) adogg76   Mon Aug 01 2005 04:00 PM
. * * Re: Don't count 92L out quite yet (and a few other tidbits) Steve H1   Mon Aug 01 2005 04:04 PM
. * * Re: August Begins, a Few Things to Watch hurricane expert   Mon Aug 01 2005 09:47 AM
. * * Re: August Begins, a Few Things to Watch La Nimo   Mon Aug 01 2005 09:59 AM
. * * Re: August Begins, a Few Things to Watch Wxwatcher2   Mon Aug 01 2005 10:12 AM
. * * Re: August Begins, a Few Things to Watch D3m3NT3DVoRT3X   Mon Aug 01 2005 12:57 PM
. * * Re: August Begins, a Few Things to Watch Old Sailor   Mon Aug 01 2005 01:44 PM
. * * Re: August Begins, a Few Things to Watch Old Sailor   Mon Aug 01 2005 01:56 PM
. * * Re: August Begins, a Few Things to Watch VolusiaMike   Mon Aug 01 2005 01:02 PM
. * * Re: August Begins, a Few Things to Watch D3m3NT3DVoRT3X   Mon Aug 01 2005 01:05 PM
. * * Re: August Begins, a Few Things to Watch Ron Basso   Mon Aug 01 2005 01:21 PM
. * * Re: August Begins, a Few Things to Watch scottsvb   Mon Aug 01 2005 01:35 PM
. * * Re: August Begins, a Few Things to Watch Storm Hunter   Mon Aug 01 2005 01:54 PM
. * * Re: August Begins, a Few Things to Watch damejune2   Mon Aug 01 2005 02:28 PM
. * * Re: August Begins, a Few Things to Watch D3m3NT3DVoRT3X   Mon Aug 01 2005 01:11 PM
. * * Re: August Begins, a Few Things to Watch Storm Hunter   Mon Aug 01 2005 01:20 PM
. * * Re: August Begins, a Few Things to Watch *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* Ed G   Mon Aug 01 2005 01:01 PM
. * * Re: August Begins, a Few Things to Watch lawgator   Mon Aug 01 2005 09:54 AM

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