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Archives 2002-2009 >> 2006 Forecast Lounge
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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Re: Joe Bastardi's take
      Tue Aug 09 2005 03:36 PM

I'm sorry, but calling for an Andrew-type impact at this point is just irresponsible. That storm was the single most devestating storm of our time and affected hundreds of thousands of lives. It is not a storm to draw idle comparison to, period.

Irene is much further north of Andrew at 55 W -- by 5 or 6 degrees in latitude -- and the underlying conditions between this year and 1992 are entirely different. This storm could do anything, but unless you are able to back it up with hard meteorological knowledge, it's merely wishcasting at this point in time. Climatology also has just as many -- or more -- storms that didn't turn into these "tight widowmakers" -- and the atmospheric regime does not suggest anything to allow for this storm to do anything like what Andrew did.

If the threat for such a storm is there, we will know it well ahead of time. The threat is there for this storm to become a decent hurricane and potentially impact land. The chance for the latter right now is still less than 50/50 and still, no matter what occurs, a week away at the earliest. We'll watch it, but it's simply irrepsonsible meteorology to be hyping this up like that -- especially given no guidance and no observations whatsoever that suggest such a scenario is possible.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Joe Bastardi's take Rick on boat in Mobile Tue Aug 09 2005 03:36 PM
. * * Re: Joe Bastardi's take MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 09 2005 07:10 PM
. * * Re: Joe Bastardi's take Ryan   Tue Aug 09 2005 07:30 PM
. * * Re: Joe Bastardi's take ftlaudbob   Tue Aug 09 2005 09:49 PM
. * * Re: Joe Bastardi's take richisurfs   Tue Aug 09 2005 09:57 PM
. * * Re: Joe Bastardi's take Clark   Wed Aug 10 2005 01:10 AM
. * * Re: Joe Bastardi's take disneyfanfl   Tue Aug 09 2005 03:40 PM
. * * Re: Joe Bastardi's take Clark   Tue Aug 09 2005 03:36 PM
. * * Re: Joe Bastardi's take Rick on boat in Mobile   Tue Aug 09 2005 03:44 PM
. * * Re: Joe Bastardi's take Lysis   Tue Aug 09 2005 04:28 PM
. * * Re: Joe Bastardi's take damejune2   Tue Aug 09 2005 03:27 PM
. * * Re: Joe Bastardi's take damejune2   Tue Aug 09 2005 03:21 PM

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