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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Re: Irene's unpredictability
      Wed Aug 10 2005 06:30 PM

crpeavley -- a building ridge should keep Irene moving more towards the west than towards the north through time. I think everyone is picking up on that, from the NHC on down, but perhaps not quite to the degree that HPC might be. It is the HPC's job to put out long-range forecasts, including when a tropical cyclone may impact things, so their thinking is usually the first you'll see from an 'official' source that talks about landfall regions. They often disagree with the NHC, and vice versa, as always happens with different forecasters; this isn't necessarily a bad thing. Really, the time frame they are talking about right now is beyond the NHC forecast period and more towards the long range (5-7 days), where most forecasters try to shy away from when it comes to tropical cyclone forecasts. It's just a wait-and-see thing right now, but not at all inconsistent with what the general consensus seems to be with this storm.

Saw the mm5 posting before about the track, followed by the wind plot -- I'm not sure how much stock I'd put in the intensity forecasts right now. With the change to the convective parameterization in the model, we tried to get rid of the spurious vortex development near Central America, something that appears to be working. Unfortunately, in this change, we weaken the ability for the model to recognize and grow shallow cumulus clouds/convection; these are important in transferring energy to the large scales and in the development of a storm beyond a minimal TS. There is still such a scheme in there, it is just not as sophisticated. So, while it remains to be seen as to whether or not this is a true forecast of intensity or a conservative forecast, I would tend to think it is at least slightly the former and thus, as always, should be treated with caution.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Uncertainty Again with Irene MikeCAdministrator Wed Aug 10 2005 06:30 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene pedro   Wed Aug 10 2005 02:13 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 10 2005 01:34 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene Beaumont, TX   Wed Aug 10 2005 12:42 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene firestar_1   Wed Aug 10 2005 12:55 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene Bloodstar   Wed Aug 10 2005 12:21 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene Beaumont, TX   Wed Aug 10 2005 09:26 AM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene zacros   Wed Aug 10 2005 09:36 AM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene XLM   Wed Aug 10 2005 09:36 AM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene none   Wed Aug 10 2005 09:37 AM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene none   Wed Aug 10 2005 09:33 AM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene VolusiaMike   Wed Aug 10 2005 08:47 AM
. * * Evolution of Longwave Pattern must be factored in future mvmt of Irene berrywr   Wed Aug 10 2005 03:03 AM
. * * A Few Cautions Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Aug 09 2005 10:36 PM
. * * Do You Think Ryan   Tue Aug 09 2005 10:38 PM
. * * Let's not get too ahead of ourselves! berrywr   Wed Aug 10 2005 03:51 AM
. * * Re: Do You Think berrywr   Wed Aug 10 2005 03:09 AM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene hurricane expert   Tue Aug 09 2005 09:59 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene StormTrooper   Tue Aug 09 2005 10:03 PM
. * * CIMMS and Shear Analysis berrywr   Wed Aug 10 2005 03:43 AM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene JG   Tue Aug 09 2005 07:47 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 09 2005 07:52 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene StormTrooper   Tue Aug 09 2005 08:15 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 09 2005 08:46 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Frank P   Tue Aug 09 2005 08:57 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Old Sailor   Tue Aug 09 2005 08:53 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty StormTrooper   Tue Aug 09 2005 08:51 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty nl   Tue Aug 09 2005 08:54 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty rmbjoe1954   Tue Aug 09 2005 08:56 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene damejune2   Tue Aug 09 2005 08:24 PM
. * * A few notes Clark   Wed Aug 10 2005 01:00 AM
. * * Re: A few notes - Amen! berrywr   Wed Aug 10 2005 03:59 AM
. * * 5 AM EDT Update danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 10 2005 05:56 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM EDT Update OrlandoDan   Wed Aug 10 2005 06:30 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM EDT Update rmbjoe1954   Wed Aug 10 2005 06:55 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM EDT Update OrlandoDan   Wed Aug 10 2005 07:07 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM EDT Update Steve H1   Wed Aug 10 2005 07:33 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM EDT Update Random Chaos   Wed Aug 10 2005 08:02 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM EDT Update B.C.Francis   Wed Aug 10 2005 09:18 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM EDT Update ftlaudbob   Wed Aug 10 2005 08:40 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM EDT Update Fletch   Wed Aug 10 2005 08:48 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM EDT Update MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 10 2005 10:14 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM EDT Update bamffl   Wed Aug 10 2005 11:40 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM EDT Update NewWatcher   Wed Aug 10 2005 10:32 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM EDT Update MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 10 2005 10:40 AM
. * * ts??? ftlaudbob   Wed Aug 10 2005 10:35 AM
. * * Re: ts??? Ryan   Wed Aug 10 2005 10:39 AM
. * * Still a TD LI Phil   Wed Aug 10 2005 10:42 AM
. * * Re: Still a TD Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Wed Aug 10 2005 10:52 AM
. * * Re: Still a TD Old Sailor   Wed Aug 10 2005 10:46 AM
. * * Re: Still a TD NewWatcher   Wed Aug 10 2005 10:49 AM
. * * Re: Still a TD Old Sailor   Wed Aug 10 2005 10:58 AM
. * * Re: Still a TD Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Wed Aug 10 2005 11:27 AM
. * * Re: Still a TD Old Sailor   Wed Aug 10 2005 11:58 AM
. * * Re: Still a TD Steve H1   Wed Aug 10 2005 12:13 PM
. * * Re: Still a TD Ron Basso   Wed Aug 10 2005 12:36 PM
. * * Re: Still a TD NONAME   Wed Aug 10 2005 12:24 PM
. * * Re: Still a TD *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* ralphfl   Wed Aug 10 2005 12:37 PM
. * * Re: Still a TD *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* ralphfl   Wed Aug 10 2005 12:43 PM
. * * Re: Still a TD Steve H1   Wed Aug 10 2005 12:58 PM
. * * Re: Still a TD jbmusic   Wed Aug 10 2005 12:58 PM
. * * Re: Still a TD *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* ralphfl   Wed Aug 10 2005 04:18 PM
. * * Re: Still a TD *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* scottsvb   Wed Aug 10 2005 01:01 PM
. * * this site Rick on boat in Mobile   Wed Aug 10 2005 01:07 PM
. * * ralphfl *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* Rick on boat in Mobile   Wed Aug 10 2005 12:48 PM
. * * Re: ralphfl Myles   Wed Aug 10 2005 12:55 PM
. * * Re: ralphfl NONAME   Wed Aug 10 2005 12:53 PM
. * * Recons Bloodstar   Wed Aug 10 2005 01:02 PM
. * * Re: ralphfl scottsvb   Wed Aug 10 2005 12:58 PM
. * * Re: ralphfl superfly   Wed Aug 10 2005 01:08 PM
. * * Irene's unpredictability disneyfanfl   Wed Aug 10 2005 01:36 PM
. * * Re: Irene's unpredictability Big Red Machine   Wed Aug 10 2005 01:43 PM
. * * Re: Irene's unpredictability emackl   Wed Aug 10 2005 01:47 PM
. * * Re: Irene's unpredictability Clark   Wed Aug 10 2005 02:18 PM
. * * Re: Irene's unpredictability Ron Basso   Wed Aug 10 2005 02:48 PM
. * * Re: Irene's unpredictability crpeavley   Wed Aug 10 2005 06:21 PM
. * * Re: Irene's unpredictability Clark   Wed Aug 10 2005 06:30 PM
. * * Re: Irene's unpredictability crpeavley   Wed Aug 10 2005 03:10 PM
. * * Re: Irene's unpredictability Brad in Miami   Wed Aug 10 2005 03:12 PM
. * * Re: Irene's unpredictability Ed in Va   Wed Aug 10 2005 03:21 PM
. * * Re: Irene's unpredictability Ron Basso   Wed Aug 10 2005 04:05 PM
. * * Re: Irene's unpredictability Brad in Miami   Wed Aug 10 2005 03:29 PM
. * * Re: Irene's unpredictability Steve H1   Wed Aug 10 2005 03:34 PM
. * * Re: Irene's unpredictability Fletch   Wed Aug 10 2005 03:38 PM
. * * Re: Irene's unpredictability Wxwatcher2   Wed Aug 10 2005 04:05 PM
. * * Re: Irene's unpredictability meto   Wed Aug 10 2005 04:04 PM
. * * What will they say at 5pm LoisCane   Wed Aug 10 2005 04:00 PM
. * * Re: What will they say at 5pm MapMaster   Wed Aug 10 2005 04:46 PM
. * * Re: What will they say at 5pm *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* Rick on boat in Mobile   Wed Aug 10 2005 04:04 PM
. * * Model's Ryan   Wed Aug 10 2005 04:11 PM
. * * Re: Model's Ron Basso   Wed Aug 10 2005 04:24 PM
. * * Re: Model's Brad in Miami   Wed Aug 10 2005 04:42 PM
. * * Re: Model's Ron Basso   Wed Aug 10 2005 06:30 PM
. * * Re: Model's Clark   Wed Aug 10 2005 06:41 PM
. * * Re: Model's meto   Wed Aug 10 2005 04:33 PM
. * * Re: Model's Todd   Wed Aug 10 2005 04:37 PM
. * * Re: Model's Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Wed Aug 10 2005 04:49 PM
. * * Re: Model's none   Wed Aug 10 2005 04:41 PM
. * * Re: Model's Todd   Wed Aug 10 2005 04:47 PM
. * * Irene Still A TD @ 5:00 LI Phil   Wed Aug 10 2005 04:51 PM
. * * Re: Irene Still A TD @ 5:00 Big Kahuna   Wed Aug 10 2005 05:13 PM
. * * Re: Irene Still A TD @ 5:00 BillD   Wed Aug 10 2005 06:05 PM
. * * Re: Irene Still A TD @ 5:00 Brad in Miami   Wed Aug 10 2005 05:24 PM
. * * Re: Irene Still A TD @ 5:00 hurricane_freak   Wed Aug 10 2005 05:22 PM
. * * Re: Irene Still A TD @ 5:00 Bloodstar   Wed Aug 10 2005 05:22 PM
. * * Re: Model's Ed in Va   Wed Aug 10 2005 04:48 PM
. * * Re: Model's Old Sailor   Wed Aug 10 2005 04:30 PM
. * * Re: Irene's unpredictability NewWatcher   Wed Aug 10 2005 03:26 PM
. * * Re: Irene's unpredictability Ryan   Wed Aug 10 2005 03:58 PM
. * * Re: Irene's unpredictability rmbjoe1954   Wed Aug 10 2005 03:01 PM
. * * Re: Irene's unpredictability emackl   Wed Aug 10 2005 02:55 PM
. * * Re: Irene's unpredictability bamffl   Wed Aug 10 2005 02:58 PM
. * * Re: Irene's unpredictability Ed in Va   Wed Aug 10 2005 02:34 PM
. * * Re: Irene's unpredictability NewWatcher   Wed Aug 10 2005 02:35 PM
. * * Re: Irene's unpredictability MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 10 2005 01:59 PM
. * * Re: Irene's unpredictability scottsvb   Wed Aug 10 2005 02:16 PM
. * * Re: Irene's unpredictability JYarsh   Wed Aug 10 2005 02:11 PM
. * * Re: Irene's unpredictability MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 10 2005 01:43 PM
. * * LAST WARNING LI Phil   Wed Aug 10 2005 01:34 PM
. * * Re: Still a TD ftlaudbob   Wed Aug 10 2005 11:07 AM
. * * Irene will become a strong hurricane, I think Rick on boat in Mobile   Wed Aug 10 2005 11:03 AM
. * * Re: Irene will become a strong hurricane, I think Ryan   Wed Aug 10 2005 11:12 AM
. * * Re: Irene will become a strong hurricane, I think Rick on boat in Mobile   Wed Aug 10 2005 11:17 AM
. * * Re: Irene will become a strong hurricane, I think Myles   Wed Aug 10 2005 12:13 PM
. * * Re: 5 AM EDT Update ftlaudbob   Wed Aug 10 2005 08:58 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM EDT Update nl   Wed Aug 10 2005 08:42 AM
. * * t.d. irene heading out to sea... no threat to land? HanKFranK   Wed Aug 10 2005 01:15 AM
. * * Last 2 QuickScat passes Brad in Miami   Wed Aug 10 2005 01:20 AM
. * * Re: Last 2 QuickScat passes Brad in Miami   Wed Aug 10 2005 11:09 AM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene rmbjoe1954   Tue Aug 09 2005 08:29 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene Gainesville, FL   Tue Aug 09 2005 08:48 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene Gainesville, FL   Tue Aug 09 2005 09:06 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene Steve H1   Tue Aug 09 2005 09:22 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene Frank P   Tue Aug 09 2005 09:35 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene Old Sailor   Tue Aug 09 2005 09:59 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene Frank P   Tue Aug 09 2005 10:07 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene MikeG   Tue Aug 09 2005 10:15 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene Old Sailor   Tue Aug 09 2005 10:12 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene Frank P   Tue Aug 09 2005 10:21 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene StormTrooper   Tue Aug 09 2005 10:17 PM
. * * Irene's winds danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 09 2005 10:28 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene MikeG   Tue Aug 09 2005 10:22 PM
. * * Ship report danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 09 2005 10:35 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene Random Chaos   Tue Aug 09 2005 10:32 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene Frank P   Tue Aug 09 2005 10:43 PM
. * * Ship Report danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 09 2005 10:56 PM
. * * Re: Ship Report Old Sailor   Tue Aug 09 2005 11:07 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene ftlaudbob   Tue Aug 09 2005 10:36 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene *DELETED* StormTrooper   Tue Aug 09 2005 10:27 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene *DELETED* Old Sailor   Tue Aug 09 2005 10:35 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene MikeG   Tue Aug 09 2005 10:30 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene MikeG   Tue Aug 09 2005 10:30 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene StormTrooper   Tue Aug 09 2005 09:58 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene Frank P   Tue Aug 09 2005 09:18 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene damejune2   Tue Aug 09 2005 08:41 PM
. * * Enough! danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 09 2005 08:29 PM
. * * Re: Enough! StormTrooper   Tue Aug 09 2005 08:42 PM
. * * RECON danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 09 2005 08:37 PM
. * * Re: RECON JG   Tue Aug 09 2005 09:58 PM
. * * RECON danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 09 2005 08:12 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene dem05   Tue Aug 09 2005 07:43 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene hurricane expert   Tue Aug 09 2005 07:15 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene richisurfs   Tue Aug 09 2005 07:19 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene hccapecoral   Tue Aug 09 2005 07:28 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene Big Red Machine   Tue Aug 09 2005 07:27 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 09 2005 07:31 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene Ryan   Tue Aug 09 2005 07:26 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 09 2005 07:05 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene damejune2   Tue Aug 09 2005 06:54 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene berrywr   Wed Aug 10 2005 03:06 AM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 09 2005 06:56 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene meto   Wed Aug 10 2005 09:01 AM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene rmbjoe1954   Wed Aug 10 2005 09:12 AM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene Tropics Guy   Wed Aug 10 2005 09:24 AM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene ftlaudbob   Wed Aug 10 2005 09:20 AM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene VolusiaMike   Wed Aug 10 2005 09:35 AM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene Wxwatcher2   Wed Aug 10 2005 09:05 AM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene damejune2   Tue Aug 09 2005 06:58 PM

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