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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Irene & to-be-TD 10
      Fri Aug 12 2005 07:54 PM

Update coming shortly on the main page (blog) with regards to the future courses and intensities of Irene and soon-to-be TD 10. I was going to try summarizing things for brevity here, but instead, here's the full version...

Irene is undergoing a little bit of easterly wind shear right now, but not a lot. The low-level center is near the deepest convection on the eastern side of the system, suggesting that it is much more vertically coherent than before. The effects of the dry environment are still present, but lessening with time. Unfortunately, we do not have a recent microwave imager pass to give us additional data since the last recon fix about 2-3hr ago, but the overall visible and infrared satellite imagery suggests the storm is getting better organized and will likely become a hurricane in the next 6-12hr. This storm may try to peak in intensity similar to Jeanne -- it does have a similar appearance on satellite imagery, for what little that is worth -- but I still feel that cat 1/2 intensity is a more likely bet.

Path? That's the million dollar question of the evening. Satellite-derived products hint at a weakness still in the ridge near where Irene is right now, but the main shortwave trough creating this weakness is about to pass the storm on by. Steering currents get pretty weak from here, as the main band of westerly flow has moved back to the north over the course of the day. An upper-low to the southwest of the storm likely interacted with it for a period of time earlier today, resulting in a temporary movement back towards the west-northwest. Overall, however, a general 300-315deg motion is what we've seen for the past day or two. There are signs of the ridge trying to build in a bit to the north of the storm, but whatever is going on there right now is relatively weak at this time.

Given all of this, a slow deceleration of the storm as it moves northwest is likely over the next 2-3 days. It should slow to nearly stationary sometime this weekend, but I do not believe that it will occur near 70W, as the 5pm NHC package advertises. More likely, the storm will draw a bit closer to shore -- perhaps close to 72 or 73W -- before slowing down. The upper-low that has been in the Gulf is showing signs of lifting northward; as it does, in conjunction with a digging trough in the west with a shortwave moving through Idaho at this time, the flow should amplify to some degree in the east...likely with a narrow trough along the east coast and ridging further out to sea. No scenario is certain at this point in time by any means, but the threat south of Charleston is over and decreasing to the north of there. I believe the storm will remain offshore, perhaps brushing the coastline from 200-300 miles away, and ultimately move out to sea in the westerly flow. Given the strength of the westerly flow, I don't currently put much stock in the NOGAPS solution of it slowing and cutting off north of Bermuda in 5-6 days.

Nevertheless, everyone from Charleston northward should continue to watch this storm, as any prolonged movement to the west increases the threat to the coast. This may prove to be a close call -- with an amplifying flow pattern to potentially thank for that -- and the track is subject to change.

Invest 96L continues to become better organized, with well-defined mid-level banding features apparent on infrared satellite imagery over the past two hours. The mid- & low-level centers appear to be congealing near 13N/42.5W and I expect a tropical depression to form here within the next 12-18hr. Intensification should be modest through the forecast period as the storm moves in a general west-northwest fashion. I believe we will likely have T.S. Jose by the end of the weekend, with only some dry air and modest shear being the inhibiting factors through Monday. This is the feature the FSU MM5 and, to a lesser degree, some of the globals (GFS & UKMET) picked up on for development over the past 4-5 days.

Unless it almost immediately begins to turn northwest and north, this developing system should continue on a general westward path. A trough is just north of the system right now, likely amplified a bit by the ridge that has been building near Irene over the past few days, but is rather weak and does not appear as a strong entity in any of the satellite-derived wind products. If it does not get captured by this, the storm should continue on a west to west-northwestward path, bringing it to near the central Lesser Antilles near the start of the week. Where it goes from there depends upon how the ridge builds in once Irene heads on out to sea...the greater the weakness left, the more likely that this system gets pulled northward across some of the Greater Antilles. Model guidance is split on solutions in the short-term with this one, but given the trends of the storm so far and climatology, slow intensification and a general west-northwestward motion is the call for now.

We'll watch the wave just off of the coast of Africa for development over the weekend as well. It's a vertically deep system already, but is rather far to the north. Given this, unless it reforms further south, it would likely be a fish spinner...moreso the faster it develops. It needs some time to get its act together before becoming a threat to do any development, but is in a favorable environment to do so. Possibly invest 97L sometime over the weekend, maybe more later on. Not much model support -- there's more for the next wave in the series -- but worth watching nonetheless. Models are calling for ridging to take over most of the basin by 5-6 days out, suggesting that things are likely to get cranking by then...if not sooner.

East Pacific is still cranking, with Fernanda still going strong -- albeit not for much longer; the deep convection is already starting to fade away on the western side of the circulation and visible satellite imagery suggests that the low-level stratocu field of the cooler waters of the Pacific may be impacting the surface circulation. The satellite representation remains very good, but I've got a feeling the strongest winds aren't making it down to the surface anymore. Expect the intensity to start falling at a good clip over the next few days. As it weakens, the overall environment for Greg should become a bit more favorable; slow intensification is likely with this one. They'll both keep heading west, likely to kick up some surf for Hawaii down the line (but nothing more at this time). The feature just off of the Mexican coast also is a candidate for development as it moves parallel to coast; would not be surprised to see it perk up into an invest/depression this weekend as well.

Prime time is beginning, as advertised. Stay tuned, as this may just be the tip of the iceberg.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Irene Moving Northwest, TD 10 Forms MikeCAdministrator Fri Aug 12 2005 07:54 PM
. * * Re: Irene Moving Northwest and Will Likely Head Out to Sea pedro   Sat Aug 13 2005 09:49 AM
. * * Re: Irene Moving Northwest and Will Likely Head Out to Sea AndyG   Sat Aug 13 2005 10:18 AM
. * * Re: Irene Moving Northwest and Will Likely Head Out to Sea Beaumont, TX   Fri Aug 12 2005 08:36 PM
. * * Re: Irene Moving Northwest and Will Likely Head Out to Sea Frank P   Fri Aug 12 2005 08:41 PM
. * * quick reminder HanKFranK   Fri Aug 12 2005 09:35 PM
. * * 11:00 is out...Irene Still a TS LI Phil   Fri Aug 12 2005 10:53 PM
. * * The Future Of Irene Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Aug 12 2005 11:32 PM
. * * Re: The Future Of Irene Random Chaos   Fri Aug 12 2005 11:38 PM
. * * Re: The Future Of Irene Wxwatcher2   Sat Aug 13 2005 12:10 AM
. * * Re: The Future Of Irene Steve H1   Sat Aug 13 2005 12:34 AM
. * * Re: The Future Of Irene HanKFranK   Sat Aug 13 2005 02:01 AM
. * * Re: The Future Of Irene Cat Adjuster   Sat Aug 13 2005 10:23 AM
. * * Re: The Future Of Irene Old Sailor   Sat Aug 13 2005 11:01 AM
. * * Re: The Future Of Irene NONAME   Sat Aug 13 2005 12:23 PM
. * * Invest 96L Comments Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sat Aug 13 2005 12:35 PM
. * * Re: The Future Of Irene ralphfl   Sat Aug 13 2005 12:33 PM
. * * Re: The Future Of Irene Kevin   Sat Aug 13 2005 01:37 PM
. * * Re: The Future Of Irene scottsvb   Sat Aug 13 2005 01:48 PM
. * * Re: The Future Of Irene mikeG   Sat Aug 13 2005 02:04 PM
. * * Good night, Irene, good night Irene... margie_visiting   Sat Aug 13 2005 02:25 PM
. * * Re: Good night, Irene, good night Irene... Myles   Sat Aug 13 2005 03:55 PM
. * * Could we have a trend here? ftlaudbob   Sat Aug 13 2005 03:32 PM
. * * Re: Could we have a trend here? CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sat Aug 13 2005 04:33 PM
. * * Re: Could we have a trend here? Kevin   Sat Aug 13 2005 05:50 PM
. * * Re: Could we have a trend here? emackl   Sat Aug 13 2005 06:06 PM
. * * Re: Could we have a trend here? meto   Sat Aug 13 2005 06:27 PM
. * * Re: Could we have a trend here? NONAME   Sat Aug 13 2005 08:23 PM
. * * TD 10 and Irene danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 13 2005 08:33 PM
. * * Re: TD 10 and Irene *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* NONAME   Sat Aug 13 2005 08:40 PM
. * * Re: TD 10 and Irene Storm Cooper   Sat Aug 13 2005 08:41 PM
. * * Re: Could we have a trend here? Clark   Sat Aug 13 2005 06:27 PM
. * * Re: Could we have a trend here? SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Sat Aug 13 2005 08:32 PM
. * * Re: The Future Of Irene mikeG   Sat Aug 13 2005 02:12 PM
. * * Re: The Future Of Irene mikeG   Sat Aug 13 2005 02:19 AM
. * * Early Saturday thoughts on Irene LI Phil   Sat Aug 13 2005 07:21 AM
. * * Re: Early Saturday thoughts on Irene craigm   Sat Aug 13 2005 08:53 AM
. * * Re: quick reminder damejune2   Fri Aug 12 2005 10:51 PM
. * * Hank and Irene danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 12 2005 10:50 PM
. * * Irene stalled? Frank P   Fri Aug 12 2005 09:24 PM
. * * Re: Irene Moving Northwest and Will Likely Head Out to Sea Clark   Fri Aug 12 2005 01:56 PM
. * * Re: Irene Moving Northwest and Will Likely Head Out to Sea Myles   Fri Aug 12 2005 02:19 PM
. * * Re: Irene Moving Northwest and Will Likely Head Out to Sea scottsvb   Fri Aug 12 2005 02:16 PM
. * * Re: Irene Moving Northwest and Will Likely Head Out to Sea Rabbit   Fri Aug 12 2005 02:28 PM
. * * Re: Irene Moving Northwest and Will Likely Head Out to Sea scottsvb   Fri Aug 12 2005 02:39 PM
. * * Re: Irene Moving Northwest and Will Likely Head Out to Sea scottsvb   Fri Aug 12 2005 02:43 PM
. * * Recon Brad in Miami   Fri Aug 12 2005 02:37 PM
. * * Re: Recon Todd   Fri Aug 12 2005 02:48 PM
. * * Re: Recon crpeavley   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:14 PM
. * * Re: Recon john03   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:19 PM
. * * Re: Recon Brad in Miami   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:22 PM
. * * Re: Recon Brad in Miami   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:26 PM
. * * Re: Recon Todd   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:18 PM
. * * Re: Recon Rabbit   Fri Aug 12 2005 02:51 PM
. * * Re: Recon Brad in Miami   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:04 PM
. * * Re: Recon Frank P   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:09 PM
. * * Recon Cocoa Beach   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:12 PM
. * * Re: Recon damejune2   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:21 PM
. * * Re: Recon Frank P   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:26 PM
. * * Re: Recon damejune2   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:32 PM
. * * Re: Recon Gainesville, FL   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:37 PM
. * * Re: Recon OcalaKT   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:40 PM
. * * Re: Recon Reaper   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:53 PM
. * * Re: Recon mikeG   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:35 PM
. * * Re: Recon mikeG   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:41 PM
. * * Re: Recon ShanaTX   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:46 PM
. * * Re: Recon mikeG   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:03 PM
. * * Re: Recon mikeG   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:04 PM
. * * Re: Recon Ed in Va   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:12 PM
. * * Re: Recon rmbjoe1954   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:25 PM
. * * Re: Recon Big Kahuna   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:00 PM
. * * Re: Recon superfly   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:45 PM
. * * Re: Recon Ed in Va   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:41 PM
. * * Re: Recon Old Sailor   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:47 PM
. * * Re: Recon Frank P   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:50 PM
. * * Re: Recon Old Sailor   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:55 PM
. * * Re: Recon ralphfl   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:25 PM
. * * Re: Recon mikeG   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:28 PM
. * * Re: Recon margie_visiting   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:28 PM
. * * Re: Recon margie_visiting   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:33 PM
. * * Re: Recon Hurricane Fredrick 1979   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:40 PM
. * * Re: Recon Todd   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:46 PM
. * * Re: Recon mikeG   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:42 PM
. * * Re: Recon DavidP   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:47 PM
. * * Re: Recon mikeG   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:53 PM
. * * Re: Recon mikeG   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:54 PM
. * * Re: Recon Ryan   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:58 PM
. * * Re: Recon Clark   Fri Aug 12 2005 06:49 PM
. * * Irene & to-be-TD 10 Clark   Fri Aug 12 2005 07:54 PM
. * * Re: Irene & to-be-TD 10 Old Sailor   Fri Aug 12 2005 08:06 PM
. * * Re: Recon mikeG   Fri Aug 12 2005 06:55 PM
. * * Re: Recon margie_visiting   Fri Aug 12 2005 07:15 PM
. * * 96L NONAME   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:52 PM
. * * Re: 96L mikeG   Fri Aug 12 2005 05:06 PM
. * * Re: Eye MapMaster   Fri Aug 12 2005 05:15 PM
. * * Re: Eye yecatsjg   Fri Aug 12 2005 05:38 PM
. * * Re: Eye MapMasterNLI   Fri Aug 12 2005 06:35 PM
. * * Re: Eye mikeG   Fri Aug 12 2005 06:36 PM
. * * Re: Eye Frank P   Fri Aug 12 2005 08:32 PM
. * * Re: Eye Storm Cooper   Fri Aug 12 2005 06:46 PM
. * * Re: Recon damejune2   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:28 PM
. * * Re: Recon Frank P   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:18 PM
. * * Re: Recon mikeG   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:23 PM
. * * Re: Recon Bloodstar   Fri Aug 12 2005 02:55 PM
. * * Re: Recon Ed in Va   Fri Aug 12 2005 02:55 PM
. * * Re: Recon Frank P   Fri Aug 12 2005 02:55 PM
. * * Re: Recon NewWatcher   Fri Aug 12 2005 02:56 PM
. * * Re: Recon Todd   Fri Aug 12 2005 02:54 PM
. * * Re: Irene Moving Northwest and Will Likely Head Out to Sea Old Sailor   Fri Aug 12 2005 01:21 PM
. * * Re: Irene Moving Northwest and Will Likely Head Out to Sea craigm   Fri Aug 12 2005 01:50 PM
. * * Re: Irene Moving Northwest and Will Likely Head Out to Sea MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 12 2005 01:53 PM

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