The latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimate from one of the three agencies the NHC uses -- and the only one publicly available -- now has an estimate of 5.0 on the storm, which generally translates to an intensity of about 105mph. The full website can be found here: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html. I'd go into a full discussion about the Dvorak technique, but it'd take quite a long time; nevertheless, it is an attempt to categorize storm intensity by the overall cloud pattern & structure (as determined by satellite) for a given tropical cyclone. It does a pretty good job and is often all we have for intense storms well out at sea, but does have some error in it from time to time and is generally a subjective categorization process requiring a lot of practice, training, and experience on the observer's part. Efforts are underway to create an objective Dvorak system, primarily at UWisconsin, but that is just experimental at this time.
As for TD 10...it is looking a little disorganized at this time with perhaps two separate low-level centers due to this morning's convective burst to the west of the old center. Nevertheless, conditions are improving with the system and we may well see something sometime tomorrow once again out of this one. Model guidance that picks it up is now trending more towards recurvature and an impact near Bermuda down the line, but that is 5 days out and for a weak system, I'm not sure how much I trust the models. We'll watch it.
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 52941
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center