as an initial note, irene's appearance dramatically improved earlier today before the sheared look returned. the 5.0 rating, symmetry, and eye definition suggest that it probably peaked at about 90kt around 17z-18z (1-2pm). official track has it remaining tropical until tomorrow night.. sounds about right. 10L is the next item of interest. though it's been declassified since around mid-sunday, the organization of the system hasn't ever really deteriorated. it's been sheared, but as far as it having a defined cyclonic circulation.. well, it's still probably supporting 25-30kt winds in convection. there have been bursts of convection today as the circulation works wnw between 5-10kt (the center appeared to jump west around late morning)... nhc outlooks suggest they see it getting slowly better organized, potentially being reclassified tomorrow or thursday. there's a tentative recon for thursday, also. done the math enough to think it's going to get reclassified and keep tracking wnw during the week. long range tracks of the vorticity/pressure weakness vary into two schools from the models. eta/gfs take it nw past 60w towards bermuda or just to the west where irene went.. euro/nogaps have more favored it moving wnw to the bahamas around the weekend. a lot is dependent on the shortwave supposed to dig near the east coast around the weekend... as highlighted by some others. highly uncertain when we have a system that will probably develop further but as of right now is extremely weak and not well handled by the models. some convection flaring south of the wave... other convection along the western edge of the central atlantic trough with a surface reflection... vortmax is tracked west by the models. fairly strong wave near the african coast that may well evaporate like the predecessor (only to re-emerge further west, perhaps). around fri-sat a strong wave that immediately develops is shown in the models.. means we'll probably have a westward moving invest around sunday/monday. lowering pressures near the gulf/west caribbean not paired with a conducive surface environment (low convergence and vorticity, fast flow)... should change as the trough weakens and pressures continue to slowly lower. whatever energy splits away from the TUTT may help trigger something. scott has an idea on this area that may hold water. bastardi thinks the vorticity out of the TUTT could be the culprit. i'm reserved on it... too fluid at this point. as far as pattern evolution... soi has been diving from neutral for the last week.. on average slowly coming up. the mjo amplification is present in the western part of the basin coincident with an unfavorable upper pattern. clark has attributed it to blocking in the higher latitudes.. on the gfs ensembles i'm seeing the strength of the blocks weaken but be in constant transition. should keep the shear profile in the basin evolving but moderately unfavorable in many areas. makes me think it'll be later in the month before the heavy action starts.. but probably a system or two active at times in the meanwhile. HF 0026z17august
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