The latest VIS SAT on old TD10 shows a little better organization with improved convection on the eastern band and some new convection starting on the SW side. Overall, shear seems to be lessening and the ULL to the NW looks to be moving off to the NW and weakening. Shear forecasts are favorable after 24 hrs and the SHIPS model takes the system to a 70 knot hurricane in 120 hours.
Where it goes...the numerical models have shifted south and west during the last couple of days but looking at the big global picture, it seems like a fairly vigorous trough is forecast along the east coast from 4-5 days out which would weaken the Atlantic Ridge and possibly cause a more poleward motion. Some mixed assessments on this from the HPC with the ECMWF model showing less trough amplification and the GFS showing more. Also, depends on the development of a coastal NC low/trough which weakens the ridge as depicted in some of the global models. If the trough is weaker, then maybe a stairstep north and back west again. All in all, too early to tell.
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