I don't doubt that the energy with ex-TD 10 will get towards the Bahamas, as JB says. He figured the disturbance would be amplified today; instead, it's weakened through the day. However, watching his video, he's using very weak signatures from the models to try to send the storm to near 75-80W. The only way the system threatens Florida in the current & forecast regime is if it remains a very weak entity...TD or less. Any development of the system -- not nearly as likely now as before -- and it heads off towards open water under deeper layer steering flow from an approaching trough and weakness along the coastline as well as the natural northward tendency of larger storms. Looking at the steering flow, you can make a case for it getting to Florida -- just not as anything significant, and that's where the whole "using JB with caution" caveat that Steve mentioned yesterday comes into play. As with any guidance, including models or people (myself included), use with caution.
More significant would be the SW Caribbean feature for the western Gulf or any potential development alnog the end of an unusually strong frontal boundary predicted to head for the northern Gulf over the weekend, though the latter probably isn't likely and the former still needs some time. Africa's about to give us some waves, but I'm not sure I buy the wave at 5N/20E (not W) that JB is looking at affecting the Lesser Antilles at the end of next week. It might well develop, but anything that does develop is going to tend to miss the islands to the north.
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