There are 3 systems this Sunday afternoon capable of development within the next 5 days. The first is coming into the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico from off the Yucatan and has potential to quickly spin up like Gert and Bret did earlier this season, but just as they did, this would stay south in its final move to the coast, reaching though coast near Tuxpan Tuesday.
The second is a bigger problem. TD10 is gone, perhaps the reason was the tropical wave that was following it always seemed to interrupt its development pulses. Well now that tropical wave has all the potential of the pattern to itself and the mid level spin is near 20.5 north and 70.0 west this afternoon. The most likely path of this is to near Nassau by Wednesday and just east of the central Florida coast by Thursday. Building pressures over the northeast and the atlantic mid and late week are a known precursor to tropical development and so this is liable to become better organized during the week. All interests on the southeast coast should pay close attention to this. Interestingly enough, a tropical wave near 60 west is moving quickly toward it and it will either feed in and help, or compete and limit as the week goes on. Should development take place, the system may turn west into Florida and to the Gulf on the weekend given the overall pattern.
The 3rd is a major wave that is near the Cape Verdes. This may the first of several that can develop and try to come across. It will be moving west the next few days.
For now though, the one that can cause forecasters the greatest wailing and gnashing of teeth is the second one. accuweather [list] [list]
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