Isidore Close to the Yucatan future Still Uncertain

alright, going to tune my forecast one more time, then sticking with it rain or shine. it offers three possibilities.
for the next 48hrs i have only one track, that will diverge afterwards. the center has jogged sw onshore today and should stay just onshore the yucatan for another few hours. it should emerge at the upper rim of the BOC in about eight to ten hours. the eye should be less defined but intact, intensity maybe 95-100kt/948-954mb. the storm should begin to slow down even further in 24-36.. by then it should be back near cat 4. a piece of the shortwave that is going by to the north split away and is digging in over mexico, while heights are rising to the east. isidore should turn northwest in this environment.. and strengthen further. it may reach category five by peaks in eyewall contraction cycles. at 48hr the system is moving northwest.. here is where the tracks diverge.
option 1: system keeps a westerly component through 72hr and gets due south of beaumont tx. it then turns due north and picks up speed, hits the coast on the evening of september 26 in western louisiana. begins phasing ahead of the shortwave and accelerates NE to the ohio valley by the 28th.
option 2: basically follows option 1, but basically all movement is slower. environment begins to change as the system approaches the coast and it bends NE, coming ashore between new iberia and houma very late thursday or early friday, having weakened slightly (still a cat 4). NE movement is slower and rainfall is heavier, focused more in the tennessee valley. system is becoming extratropical over eastern tennessee by the 28th.
option 3: system moves slower overall, with more of a stall in the western gulf, and less latitude before it begins bending northeast. system weakens to a cat 3 crossing extreme southeast louisiana early friday and hitting between gulfport and pensacola near noon friday. weakens less inland over the southeast, emerges on the mid atlantic coast sunday and clips new england on early monday.. probably extratropical at this point. core of inland rainfall is from southeast louisiana northeast along the appalachians.
right now i'm leaning on option 2. i know, a wishy washy forecast but a forecast.
other stuff: kyle tropical! looks so much the worse. probably go west for a few days then stall again, loop, maybe go west again.
td 13.. late IR shots are showing convection developing near the racing center.. its alive for now. not going to organize much until it slows, probably not going to slow much until it's in the caribbean. think it will stay just south of the nhc official track.. be near jamaica on thursday as lili.
near the bahamas.. small swirl moving nw off the carolinas may develop a rain shield and be a weak unclassified system that reaches new england early tuesday. models still resolving a low in the bahamas in a few days, but until the ridge rebuilds it will be hard to tell exactly where such a thing might occur.
wave near 35w.. cruising along under shear. not a development threat in the next 24-48.. maybe thereafter. new wave coming off is nothing as of now.
thats the whole deal. i submit a poll to see where the board consensus is:

mmmkay, happy polling. keep in mind that when isidore is out of the way.. there will probably be a lili sneaking up from the caribbean.
HF 2320z22september

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