that wind report kinda checks out with what i can see down there. there's an elongated closed low just north and west (around 22/75) the deep convection. i didn't expect it, but it looks like that upper low has strengthened to the northeast and is infusing dry air in from the north... around 15kt of shear again, too. synoptic pattern still favors this thing developing, but it's going to do it slowly. center might redevelop to the east or south as just to the east there's a diffluent outflow/shortwave ridge region. soi has dropped negative again the last couple of days... as long as it keeps doing that the upper lows in the basin are going to keep harrassing nearby features. away east, 97L had its t-rating jump from too weak to 1.5. that's just a function of the convective ball that started clining to the east side overnight.. the system probably isn't generating much different winds than before. it's the equivalent of a 25-30kt depression right now... the nhc doesn't like to classify these until they have a persistent convective core; this one is marginal (depend's who's making the calls, really). they'll probably do it at 11. no reason not to; it's very likely to be a tropical storm tomorrow. HF 1343z23august
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