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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1093
Loc: fl
Re: JB
      Tue Aug 23 2005 01:44 PM

You guys need to not rely on the dynamical models. They change from run to run more so then the global models. I look at them for entertainment only. Best model to use (I feel) is the Nogaps. Others though will perform well with 1 or another storm during a season. If you look at what the Nogaps and somewhat combine the GFS,UKMET and Canadian and put a plot between them,, you will have a decent forecast. The FSU model ( not mm5 ) is decent as well. Anyways you need to look at the whole picture and enviroment data also to combine what a model might not see changing before its next run.
Right now with what could be TD12 it looks like this mornings burst might of given it life. Its burst was enhanced by a midlow over N Cuba and another to its NE. A weak low near 1010mb formed near 22.4N and 74.8W. Its movement is to the WNW with a bend to the NNW later tomorrow. It should become a TS in the next day or 2.
Im not changing my projected path ( although for florida it could go eigther way) but its going to be hard. I still expect it to be near Nassau later tomorrow and just N of Grand Bahama or 50-100 miles east of Verobeach, Fl by Friday morning. It should miss the trough and move back west or even wsw and cross the state late Friday into Saturday between WPB and the Cape. Could be a weak hurricane by then. It should move into the gulf later on Saturday between Venice and Clearwater. Movement will be slow. After that the guess would be a turn to the N and head up towards the Panhandle but that is more then 5days out. Further strengthning should be expected.
This path will be simular to Erin almost a decade ago but not exactly (of course).

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 MikeCAdministrator Tue Aug 23 2005 01:44 PM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 Beaumont, TX   Tue Aug 23 2005 02:29 PM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 Rabbit   Tue Aug 23 2005 02:35 PM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 LoisCane   Tue Aug 23 2005 06:18 AM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 Ron Basso   Tue Aug 23 2005 06:38 AM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 Richie at work   Tue Aug 23 2005 07:04 AM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 MissBecky   Tue Aug 23 2005 07:15 AM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 Random Chaos   Tue Aug 23 2005 07:19 AM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 Random Chaos   Tue Aug 23 2005 07:26 AM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 J.C.   Tue Aug 23 2005 08:10 AM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 emackl   Tue Aug 23 2005 08:15 AM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 NewWatcher   Tue Aug 23 2005 08:19 AM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 emackl   Tue Aug 23 2005 08:37 AM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 Random Chaos   Tue Aug 23 2005 08:44 AM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 Ed in Va   Tue Aug 23 2005 08:36 AM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 NewWatcher   Tue Aug 23 2005 08:42 AM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 NewWatcher   Tue Aug 23 2005 08:43 AM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 emackl   Tue Aug 23 2005 08:38 AM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 Rich B   Tue Aug 23 2005 08:48 AM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 Ron Basso   Tue Aug 23 2005 08:55 AM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 NONAME   Tue Aug 23 2005 09:08 AM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 Ron Basso   Tue Aug 23 2005 09:15 AM
. * * visibles HanKFranK   Tue Aug 23 2005 09:43 AM
. * * What the H@#% Beach   Tue Aug 23 2005 10:03 AM
. * * Re: What the H@#% NONAME   Tue Aug 23 2005 10:08 AM
. * * Re: What the H@#% NewWatcher   Tue Aug 23 2005 10:30 AM
. * * Circulation Beach   Tue Aug 23 2005 10:22 AM
. * * Re: Circulation ftlaudbob   Tue Aug 23 2005 10:29 AM
. * * Re: Circulation Frank P   Tue Aug 23 2005 10:34 AM
. * * Re: Circulation NewWatcher   Tue Aug 23 2005 10:50 AM
. * * Re: Circulation NONAME   Tue Aug 23 2005 10:53 AM
. * * Re: Circulation Bloodstar   Tue Aug 23 2005 11:02 AM
. * * Re: Circulation Clark   Tue Aug 23 2005 11:21 AM
. * * Re: Circulation Frank P   Tue Aug 23 2005 10:52 AM
. * * Re: Circulation NewWatcher   Tue Aug 23 2005 10:56 AM
. * * Re: Circulation Beach   Tue Aug 23 2005 11:08 AM
. * * Re: Circulation Rabbit   Tue Aug 23 2005 11:22 AM
. * * Re: Circulation NewWatcher   Tue Aug 23 2005 11:27 AM
. * * Re: Circulation Jekyhe904   Tue Aug 23 2005 11:33 AM
. * * Re: Circulation NewWatcher   Tue Aug 23 2005 11:15 AM
. * * Re: Circulation Old Sailor   Tue Aug 23 2005 11:20 AM
. * * Re: Circulation NONAME   Tue Aug 23 2005 11:15 AM
. * * Re: Circulation MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2005 11:42 AM
. * * Re: Circulation SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2005 11:57 AM
. * * Re: QuikSCAT Bloodstar   Tue Aug 23 2005 11:51 AM
. * * Re: Circulation NONAME   Tue Aug 23 2005 11:49 AM
. * * Re: Circulation SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2005 12:01 PM
. * * Re: Circulation MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2005 12:14 PM
. * * Re: Circulation Thunderbird12   Tue Aug 23 2005 12:32 PM
. * * Re: Circulation Steve H1   Tue Aug 23 2005 12:31 PM
. * * Re: Circulation NONAME   Tue Aug 23 2005 12:26 PM
. * * Re: Circulation HURRICANELONNY   Tue Aug 23 2005 12:34 PM
. * * Re: Circulation pcola   Tue Aug 23 2005 12:46 PM
. * * Re: Circulation Jamiewx   Tue Aug 23 2005 12:38 PM
. * * Re: Circulation Big Red Machine   Tue Aug 23 2005 12:45 PM
. * * Re: Circulation Ron Basso   Tue Aug 23 2005 12:52 PM
. * * Re: Circulation Hootowl   Tue Aug 23 2005 01:32 PM
. * * Re: Circulation NONAME   Tue Aug 23 2005 01:35 PM
. * * Re: Circulation MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2005 01:40 PM
. * * Re: Circulation VolusiaMike   Tue Aug 23 2005 01:43 PM
. * * Re: Circulation Clark   Tue Aug 23 2005 02:08 PM
. * * Different area of low pressure... Clark   Tue Aug 23 2005 02:39 PM
. * * Re: Different area of low pressure... scottsvb   Tue Aug 23 2005 02:47 PM
. * * agree with scott LoisCane   Tue Aug 23 2005 03:18 PM
. * * Re: Different area of low pressure... Rabbit   Tue Aug 23 2005 02:52 PM
. * * Re: Different area of low pressure... scottsvb   Tue Aug 23 2005 03:08 PM
. * * Re: Different area of low pressure... Ron Basso   Tue Aug 23 2005 02:45 PM
. * * TD 12 Big Red Machine   Tue Aug 23 2005 02:41 PM
. * * Re: TD 12 Rabbit   Tue Aug 23 2005 02:46 PM
. * * Re: Different area of low pressure... troy2   Tue Aug 23 2005 02:45 PM
. * * Re: TD 12 MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2005 02:44 PM
. * * Re: Circulation Ron Basso   Tue Aug 23 2005 02:13 PM
. * * Re: Circulation Floridacane   Tue Aug 23 2005 02:21 PM
. * * Re: Circulation Thunderbird12   Tue Aug 23 2005 01:46 PM
. * * Re: Circulation *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* hurrark   Tue Aug 23 2005 01:48 PM
. * * Re: Circulation VolusiaMike   Tue Aug 23 2005 01:56 PM
. * * Re: Circulation MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2005 01:56 PM
. * * Re: Circulation damejune2   Tue Aug 23 2005 01:43 PM
. * * Re: Circulation NewWatcher   Tue Aug 23 2005 01:34 PM
. * * Re: Circulation Rabbit   Tue Aug 23 2005 01:54 PM
. * * Re: Circulation NONAME   Tue Aug 23 2005 01:56 PM
. * * Re: Circulation Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Tue Aug 23 2005 01:02 PM
. * * Re: Circulation Ed in Va   Tue Aug 23 2005 01:04 PM
. * * JB Beach   Tue Aug 23 2005 01:09 PM
. * * Re: JB NewWatcher   Tue Aug 23 2005 01:12 PM
. * * Re: JB scottsvb   Tue Aug 23 2005 01:44 PM
. * * Re: Circulation Big Red Machine   Tue Aug 23 2005 12:59 PM
. * * Re: Circulation NewWatcher   Tue Aug 23 2005 12:51 PM
. * * Re: Circulation Steve   Tue Aug 23 2005 12:33 PM
. * * 99L Jamiewx   Tue Aug 23 2005 10:49 AM
. * * Re: Circulation Frank P   Tue Aug 23 2005 10:29 AM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 emackl   Tue Aug 23 2005 09:32 AM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 NONAME   Tue Aug 23 2005 09:39 AM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 Rich B   Tue Aug 23 2005 09:04 AM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 NewWatcher   Tue Aug 23 2005 08:50 AM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 Beach   Tue Aug 23 2005 07:36 AM
. * * Disreguard the previous links. Beach   Tue Aug 23 2005 08:09 AM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 NewWatcher   Tue Aug 23 2005 07:31 AM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 Random Chaos   Tue Aug 23 2005 07:09 AM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 Random Chaos   Tue Aug 23 2005 07:14 AM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 pedro   Tue Aug 23 2005 06:15 AM

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