From this afternoons NWS HPC Extended Weather discussion:
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 218 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005
VALID 12Z FRI AUG 26 2005 - 12Z TUE AUG 30 2005
FINAL MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION...
TO THE SOUTH OF THESE HIGHER LAT ANOMALIES...MID LEVEL HTS ARE FCST TO BE NEAR NORMAL IN A FLAT RIDGE ACRS THE SRN TIER OF THE NATION. THE STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE AND THE DEGREE OF WEAKENESS IN IT WL BE CRUCIAL FOR THE TRACK OF THE AREA OF TROPICAL WEATHER INVOF THE BAHAMAS THAT MAY AFFECT FL AND THE NERN AND NCNTRL GULF THIS PERIOD. THE MAJORITY OF THE MED RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATE THIS LOW MOVG ACRS THE SRN PORTION OF THE FL PENINSULA AND INTO THE ERN GULF BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS IT CONTS ON THE S SIDE OF THE WEAK UPR RIDGE. THE GFS CONTS TO BE ON THE RT HAND SIDE OF THE MODEL SOLNS IN SHOWING A TRACK ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FL FRI-SUN AND THEN ALONG THE SERN COAST MON-TUE. THE ONE THING ALL THE MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THAT THERE WL BE EVENTUAL WEAKENESS IN THIS UPR RIDGE FROM THE STREAM OF STRONG SYSTEMS PUSHING IN THE NRN STREAM ALONG THE U.S./CAN BORDER. THIS WOULD THEN SUPPORT A MORE NWD COMPONENT TO THE TRACK AND POSSIBLE EFFECTS FOR THE ERN GULF COAST. THE LATEST MED RANGE PROGS ARE FOLLOWING THE TPC PREFERRED AND MODEL CONSENSUS SOLN...ALBEIT SLOWER...IN PUSHING ACRS SCNTRL FL FRI-SAT (DAYS 3-4)..INTO THE ERN GULF BY SUN (DAY 5). AT THIS POINT THE ADVERTISED WEAKNESS IN THE E-W RIDGE ALONG THE GULF SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MORE NWD COMPONENT TO THE TRACK...WITH A THREAT FOR THE CNTRL TO ERN GULF COASTAL AREA BY THE BEGINNNING OF NEXT WEEK. SEE LATEST TPC DISCUSSIONS FOR LATEST UPDATES ON THIS STORMS POTENTIAL.
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