* The error cone isn't any larger than normal -- just appears that way because of the slow motion and the scale of the image. I believe they use long-term average errors to compute the error cone, averages that don't change during the season. * Erin is not listed in the comparables because the wunderground comparables only include depressions, not tropical storms. Erin went directly to a tropical storm when it was classified in the record books. * The last storm to do the double landfall in Florida was Frances last year -- it re-emerged over Apalachee Bay for a short period of time before making landfall again near St. Marks south of Tallahassee. Erin was the previous storm before that, however, and that overall track may not be out of the realm of possibility. Model guidance is still split, so we'll have to see. Still, I'd trend more towards the globals and away from the BAM/A98E/LBAR limited models.
Edited to add... * Remember: please do not post the entire text of NHC advisories! Please use hyperlinks or just quote the single part of the statement that you wish to discuss or highlight. It is not necessary to post the entire text of the reports -- they are available elsewhere on the site, from the NHC, and from many other sources -- and that's why a few posts have been sent to the Graveyard from time to time. Thanks!
I updated my blog post with some information earlier today, with perhaps another update later. I'm in line with the NHC track & intensity thinking, though I'd have the turn back towards the west as not being quite so dramatic. This would bring the storm across the state slightly further north and shift the projected area along the Gulf coast to the east. Still, anyone east of New Orleans needs to really watch this one...I don't think it'll be a Texas storm, though. Nevertheless, keep an eye to the SE...just in case, as always.
97L is getting there, though isn't looking quite as promising as earlier today. It's far out, so the NHC will likely be conservative with it. i just logged on and started answering those posts with edits.. and then i see that you've already done them all... waste of effort. -HF
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