Like the discussion on TD12 - certainly very interesting reading and outlining the conventions and justification as to why we have TD12 not TD10. Satellite presentation is good, and with a well defined wind field, it only needs to generate more convection in the western semi-circle to really get going. Upper level and sea surface conditions favour this, and the Bahamas are unlikely to cause much hinderence in this regard. Gut instinct is that if it consolidates tonight, we will have a Category 1 Hurricane by the time it makes landfall on the Florida east coast somewhere between Ft Lauderdale and WPB. With the terrain over southern Florida not being too extreme, it will probably weaken only a little as it traverses the peninsula - but this will be down to forward speed at the time.
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