F
Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 211 (Idalia) , Major: 211 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 211 (Idalia) Major: 211 (Idalia)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: katrina problems
      Tue Aug 23 2005 11:08 PM

Ok, TD12...

The system has definately taken on a strong Comma appearence - that would seem to be Dvorak 1.5+, with SSD is saying 2.0 about an hour ago. The IR signature is definately getting its act together - less of a blob and more of a tightly defined Comma shape.

Models are still divergent - we'll have to wait for the overnight runs with the TD data input. Right now most of the models were run long enough ago that they were using Tropical Wave data, which is much harder to forcast tracks for. This is especially important becuase GFS seems to be giving an erroneous Atlantic track...so we really need to wait for the NOGAPS, CMC, and UKMET models.

The 11pm intensity chart table gives the storm a 35% chance of being hurricane strength guesstimated around landfall time (48 hours). As stated in the 11pm TD12 discussion at NHC, "THE GFDL STILL DOES NOT EVEN FORECAST STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER... THE SHIPS MODEL STILL INSISTS ON HURRICANE INTENSITY BY 48 HOURS BEFORE THE SYSTEM CROSSES FLORIDA..."

--RC
The rest of the paragraph...
HOWEVER... THE SHIPS MODEL STILL INSISTS ON
HURRICANE INTENSITY BY 48 HOURS BEFORE THE SYSTEM CROSSES
FLORIDA... WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODEST WIND SHEAR AND OVER VERY
WARM SSTS. AS MORE OF A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS... BUT
STILL LEANING TOWARD THE SHIPS... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A
LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... BUT STILL
CALLS FOR A STRONG TROPICAL STORM TO APPROACH FLORIDA WITHIN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
~danielw
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/240307.shtml


Edited by danielw (Tue Aug 23 2005 11:27 PM)

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Storm Katrina Forms Near the Bahamas, Tropical Storm Watches up Vero South MikeCAdministrator Tue Aug 23 2005 11:08 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Katrina Forms Near the Bahamas, Tropical Storm Watches up Vero South Beaumont, TX   Wed Aug 24 2005 08:53 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 12 Forms Near the Bahamas, Tropical Storm Watches up Vero South SirCane   Wed Aug 24 2005 12:25 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 12 Forms Near the Bahamas abyrd   Tue Aug 23 2005 03:41 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 12 Forms Near the Bahamas Steve H1   Tue Aug 23 2005 03:48 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 12 Forms Near the Bahamas Fletch   Tue Aug 23 2005 03:46 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 12 Forms Near the Bahamas LoisCane   Tue Aug 23 2005 03:34 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 12 Forms Near the Bahamas Old Sailor   Tue Aug 23 2005 03:50 PM
. * * 5pm disco HanKFranK   Tue Aug 23 2005 04:06 PM
. * * Re: 5pm disco Colleen A.   Tue Aug 23 2005 04:18 PM
. * * Re: 5pm disco Rabbit   Tue Aug 23 2005 04:24 PM
. * * Re: 5pm disco MikeG   Tue Aug 23 2005 04:32 PM
. * * Re: 5pm disco Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Tue Aug 23 2005 04:23 PM
. * * Re: 5pm disco trunk   Tue Aug 23 2005 04:44 PM
. * * Re: 5pm disco Colleen A.   Tue Aug 23 2005 04:41 PM
. * * Re: 5pm disco MikeG   Tue Aug 23 2005 04:46 PM
. * * Re: 5pm disco Colleen A.   Tue Aug 23 2005 04:57 PM
. * * Re: 5pm disco Rabbit   Tue Aug 23 2005 04:45 PM
. * * Re: 5pm disco Colleen A.   Tue Aug 23 2005 05:06 PM
. * * Re: 5pm disco Ed in Va   Tue Aug 23 2005 05:11 PM
. * * Re: 5pm disco Colleen A.   Tue Aug 23 2005 05:26 PM
. * * Re: 5pm disco Rabbit   Tue Aug 23 2005 04:17 PM
. * * Re: 5pm disco Colleen A.   Tue Aug 23 2005 04:22 PM
. * * Awaiting 5pm WXMAN RICHIE   Tue Aug 23 2005 04:30 PM
. * * Re: Awaiting 5pm MissBecky   Tue Aug 23 2005 05:43 PM
. * * Re: Awaiting 5pm WXMAN RICHIE   Tue Aug 23 2005 05:58 PM
. * * Re: Awaiting 5pm Justin in Miami   Tue Aug 23 2005 06:34 PM
. * * Re: Awaiting 5pm Multi-Decadal Signal   Tue Aug 23 2005 08:01 PM
. * * 12 Bloodstar   Tue Aug 23 2005 06:58 PM
. * * Re: 12 OrlandoDan   Tue Aug 23 2005 07:26 PM
. * * Re: 12 Random Chaos   Tue Aug 23 2005 07:34 PM
. * * Re: 12 Ron Basso   Tue Aug 23 2005 08:37 PM
. * * Re: 12 hurricaneye   Tue Aug 23 2005 08:45 PM
. * * Re: 12 Random Chaos   Tue Aug 23 2005 08:54 PM
. * * Re: 12 Big Red Machine   Tue Aug 23 2005 09:04 PM
. * * Re: 12 Trinidad31   Tue Aug 23 2005 10:00 PM
. * * katrina problems HanKFranK   Tue Aug 23 2005 09:34 PM
. * * Re: katrina problems Clark   Tue Aug 23 2005 10:41 PM
. * * Local WPB Meteorologists take WXMAN RICHIE   Tue Aug 23 2005 10:53 PM
. * * Satellite danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2005 10:49 PM
. * * Re: Satellite MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2005 10:51 PM
. * * Re: katrina problems Justin in Miami   Tue Aug 23 2005 10:07 PM
. * * Re: katrina problems danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2005 10:31 PM
. * * Re: katrina problems ftlaudbob   Tue Aug 23 2005 10:35 PM
. * * Re: katrina problems WXMAN RICHIE   Tue Aug 23 2005 10:30 PM
. * * Re: katrina problems Random Chaos   Tue Aug 23 2005 10:15 PM
. * * Re: katrina problems ftlaudbob   Tue Aug 23 2005 10:33 PM
. * * Re: katrina problems Colleen A.   Tue Aug 23 2005 10:52 PM
. * * Re: katrina problems danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2005 10:38 PM
. * * Re: katrina problems Genesis   Tue Aug 23 2005 10:56 PM
. * * Re: katrina problems orlando fl   Tue Aug 23 2005 11:00 PM
. * * UPDATED Forecast danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2005 11:01 PM
. * * Re: UPDATED Forecast Colleen A.   Tue Aug 23 2005 11:07 PM
. * * Re: UPDATED Forecast MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2005 11:10 PM
. * * Re: UPDATED Forecast Old Sailor   Wed Aug 24 2005 12:08 AM
. * * Re: UPDATED Forecast ralphfl   Wed Aug 24 2005 12:14 AM
. * * Re: UPDATED Forecast Clark   Tue Aug 23 2005 11:51 PM
. * * Re: UPDATED Forecast DebbiePSL   Wed Aug 24 2005 12:11 AM
. * * Re: UPDATED Forecast Old Sailor   Wed Aug 24 2005 12:14 AM
. * * Re: UPDATED Forecast DebbiePSL   Wed Aug 24 2005 12:25 AM
. * * Re: UPDATED Forecast ralphfl   Wed Aug 24 2005 12:33 AM
. * * Watch and Warnings Graphics danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 24 2005 12:47 AM
. * * Re: Watch and Warnings Graphics Storm Hunter   Wed Aug 24 2005 01:41 AM
. * * Re: Watch and Warnings Graphics Storm Hunter   Wed Aug 24 2005 01:58 AM
. * * Re: Watch and Warnings Graphics Storm Hunter   Wed Aug 24 2005 02:13 AM
. * * Supplementary Vortex danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 24 2005 02:35 AM
. * * Re: Supplementary Vortex Clark   Wed Aug 24 2005 02:39 AM
. * * Re: Supplementary Vortex Storm Hunter   Wed Aug 24 2005 02:54 AM
. * * Re: Supplementary Vortex Storm Hunter   Wed Aug 24 2005 03:34 AM
. * * Re: Supplementary Vortex Storm Hunter   Wed Aug 24 2005 04:03 AM
. * * Re: Supplementary Vortex Storm Hunter   Wed Aug 24 2005 04:36 AM
. * * Re: Supplementary Vortex Steve H1   Wed Aug 24 2005 07:09 AM
. * * Re: Supplementary Vortex Big Red Machine   Wed Aug 24 2005 07:15 AM
. * * Re: Supplementary Vortex Southern4sure   Wed Aug 24 2005 07:35 AM
. * * Re: Supplementary Vortex Big Red Machine   Wed Aug 24 2005 07:45 AM
. * * Re: Supplementary Vortex NONAME   Wed Aug 24 2005 07:55 AM
. * * Re: Supplementary Vortex emackl   Wed Aug 24 2005 08:02 AM
. * * South Fl... Beach   Wed Aug 24 2005 08:07 AM
. * * Re: South Fl... MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 24 2005 08:10 AM
. * * Re: South Fl... Ron Basso   Wed Aug 24 2005 08:23 AM
. * * Re: South Fl... TomKuhn   Wed Aug 24 2005 09:40 AM
. * * Re: South Fl... Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Wed Aug 24 2005 09:44 AM
. * * Re: South Fl... Tazmanian93   Wed Aug 24 2005 09:45 AM
. * * Re: South Fl... Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Wed Aug 24 2005 09:48 AM
. * * advisories HanKFranK   Wed Aug 24 2005 08:40 AM
. * * Re: advisories naples   Wed Aug 24 2005 08:53 AM
. * * Re: advisories Ron Basso   Wed Aug 24 2005 09:02 AM
. * * Re: advisories nl   Wed Aug 24 2005 09:07 AM
. * * Re: advisories Ron Basso   Wed Aug 24 2005 09:26 AM
. * * Re: advisories ftlaudbob   Wed Aug 24 2005 09:34 AM
. * * Re: advisories The Force 2005   Wed Aug 24 2005 09:38 AM
. * * Re: advisories MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 24 2005 09:29 AM
. * * Re: advisories Beach   Wed Aug 24 2005 08:48 AM
. * * Re: advisories VolusiaMike   Wed Aug 24 2005 08:55 AM
. * * Re: advisories Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Wed Aug 24 2005 08:57 AM
. * * Re: advisories nl   Wed Aug 24 2005 08:59 AM
. * * Re: advisories emackl   Wed Aug 24 2005 09:09 AM
. * * Re: advisories Beaumont, TX   Wed Aug 24 2005 09:14 AM
. * * superstition HanKFranK   Wed Aug 24 2005 09:22 AM
. * * Re: superstition Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Wed Aug 24 2005 09:39 AM
. * * Re: superstition Hootowl   Wed Aug 24 2005 09:29 AM
. * * Re: superstition Ron Basso   Wed Aug 24 2005 09:49 AM
. * * Re: superstition HanKFranK   Wed Aug 24 2005 09:57 AM
. * * Re: superstition The Force 2005   Wed Aug 24 2005 10:14 AM
. * * Re: superstition Ed in Va   Wed Aug 24 2005 10:23 AM
. * * Re: superstition Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Wed Aug 24 2005 10:26 AM
. * * Re: superstition Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Wed Aug 24 2005 10:30 AM
. * * update susieq   Wed Aug 24 2005 10:42 AM
. * * Re: update native   Wed Aug 24 2005 11:32 AM
. * * Re: update ralphfl   Wed Aug 24 2005 11:14 AM
. * * New Thread Clark   Wed Aug 24 2005 11:50 AM
. * * Re: superstition Fletch   Wed Aug 24 2005 10:39 AM
. * * Re: superstition Fletch   Wed Aug 24 2005 10:28 AM
. * * Katrina Rick on boat in Mobile   Wed Aug 24 2005 10:08 AM
. * * Re: superstition Fletch   Wed Aug 24 2005 10:01 AM
. * * Re: superstition Tazmanian93   Wed Aug 24 2005 10:11 AM
. * * Re: superstition stormchazer   Wed Aug 24 2005 10:09 AM
. * * Re: superstition Beach   Wed Aug 24 2005 10:01 AM
. * * Re: superstition rmbjoe1954   Wed Aug 24 2005 10:04 AM
. * * Re: superstition Ed in Va   Wed Aug 24 2005 09:26 AM
. * * Re: superstition Beaumont, TX   Wed Aug 24 2005 10:00 AM
. * * Re: superstition Ed in Va   Wed Aug 24 2005 10:06 AM
. * * Re: superstition rmbjoe1954   Wed Aug 24 2005 09:30 AM
. * * Re: advisories nl   Wed Aug 24 2005 09:19 AM
. * * Bahamas Radar Jamiewx   Wed Aug 24 2005 08:27 AM
. * * Jim in Miami Beach Miami Beach, FLA USA   Wed Aug 24 2005 08:18 AM
. * * Now a Tropical Storm Beach   Wed Aug 24 2005 08:19 AM
. * * Re: Now a Tropical Storm Myles   Wed Aug 24 2005 08:39 AM
. * * Re: Now a Tropical Storm Miami Beach, FLA USA   Wed Aug 24 2005 08:41 AM
. * * Re: UPDATED Forecast DebbiePSL   Wed Aug 24 2005 12:17 AM
. * * Re: UPDATED Forecast Sheeper   Tue Aug 23 2005 11:20 PM
. * * Re: UPDATED Forecast DebbiePSL   Wed Aug 24 2005 12:08 AM
. * * Re: UPDATED Forecast Random Chaos   Tue Aug 23 2005 11:17 PM
. * * Re: katrina problems dem05   Tue Aug 23 2005 10:51 PM
. * * Re: katrina problems Random Chaos   Tue Aug 23 2005 11:08 PM
. * * Re: katrina problems ftlaudbob   Tue Aug 23 2005 10:48 PM
. * * Re: katrina problems ftlaudbob   Tue Aug 23 2005 10:53 PM
. * * Re: katrina problems Multi-Decadal Signal   Tue Aug 23 2005 09:55 PM
. * * Re: katrina problems danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2005 09:47 PM
. * * Re: katrina problems Frank P   Tue Aug 23 2005 09:57 PM
. * * Re: 12 MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2005 09:14 PM
. * * Re: 12 Frank P   Tue Aug 23 2005 09:18 PM
. * * Re: 12 Ron Basso   Tue Aug 23 2005 08:51 PM
. * * Re: 12 rmbjoe1954   Tue Aug 23 2005 07:38 PM
. * * Re: 12 Gainesville, FL   Tue Aug 23 2005 07:47 PM
. * * Re: 12 DebbiePSL   Tue Aug 23 2005 08:05 PM
. * * Re: 12 OrlandoDan   Tue Aug 23 2005 07:43 PM
. * * Re: 12 Wxwatcher2   Tue Aug 23 2005 07:02 PM
. * * Re: 12 DebbiePSL   Tue Aug 23 2005 07:07 PM
. * * Re: Awaiting 5pm RyanRedCross1   Tue Aug 23 2005 06:06 PM
. * * Re: Awaiting 5pm pcola   Tue Aug 23 2005 06:12 PM
. * * Re: Awaiting 5pm pcola   Tue Aug 23 2005 06:04 PM
. * * Re: Awaiting 5pm Big Red Machine   Tue Aug 23 2005 06:18 PM
. * * Re: Awaiting 5pm Polkpundit   Tue Aug 23 2005 06:23 PM
. * * Re: Awaiting 5pm Big Red Machine   Tue Aug 23 2005 06:31 PM
. * * Re: Awaiting 5pm DebbiePSL   Tue Aug 23 2005 06:54 PM
. * * Re: Awaiting 5pm Rabbit   Tue Aug 23 2005 04:33 PM
. * * Re: Awaiting 5pm Thunderbird12   Tue Aug 23 2005 04:37 PM
. * * Re: Awaiting 5pm Fletch   Tue Aug 23 2005 04:37 PM
. * * A few notes Clark   Tue Aug 23 2005 05:24 PM
. * * Re: TD 13 MapMaster   Tue Aug 23 2005 05:44 PM
. * * Re: Awaiting 5pm Colleen A.   Tue Aug 23 2005 04:48 PM
. * * Re: Awaiting 5pm pcola   Tue Aug 23 2005 04:52 PM
. * * Re: Awaiting 5pm recmod   Tue Aug 23 2005 05:12 PM
. * * Re: Awaiting 5pm Random Chaos   Tue Aug 23 2005 05:21 PM
. * * Re: Awaiting 5pm Jamiewx   Tue Aug 23 2005 05:26 PM
. * * Bahamas Radar Jamiewx   Tue Aug 23 2005 05:45 PM
. * * TD 12 Rich B   Tue Aug 23 2005 05:50 PM
. * * Re: TD 12 goawaycane   Tue Aug 23 2005 06:28 PM
. * * Re: TD 12 pcola   Tue Aug 23 2005 06:31 PM
. * * Re: TD 12 CocoCrk   Tue Aug 23 2005 06:50 PM
. * * Re: TD 12 goawaycane   Tue Aug 23 2005 06:34 PM
. * * Re: Awaiting 5pm pcola   Tue Aug 23 2005 05:20 PM
. * * Re: Awaiting 5pm XLM   Tue Aug 23 2005 04:56 PM
. * * Re: Awaiting 5pm Ed in Va   Tue Aug 23 2005 04:58 PM
. * * Re: Awaiting 5pm Rabbit   Tue Aug 23 2005 05:03 PM
. * * Re: Awaiting 5pm notsignedin   Tue Aug 23 2005 05:05 PM
. * * Re: Awaiting 5pm Colleen A.   Tue Aug 23 2005 05:14 PM
. * * Katrina Rick on boat in Mobile   Tue Aug 23 2005 05:24 PM
. * * Re: Awaiting 5pm Fletch   Tue Aug 23 2005 04:32 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 12 Forms Near the Bahamas Old Sailor   Tue Aug 23 2005 04:00 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 12 Forms Near the Bahamas Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Tue Aug 23 2005 04:06 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 12 Forms Near the Bahamas scottsvb   Tue Aug 23 2005 03:37 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 12 Forms Near the Bahamas Thunderbird12   Tue Aug 23 2005 03:59 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 12 Forms Near the Bahamas MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2005 03:36 PM

Extra information
0 registered and 156 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 



Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Thread views: 32796

Rate this thread

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center