Looks like TD 12 is getting better organized as it moves to the NW. I'm watching the SW edge of the Bermuda high that is currently to the NE of the TD. It is currently moving the system to the NW. The big question is; when and if the ridge fills in to the north and turns the storm on a more westward path. This is crucial both for who on the east coast of Florida gets impacted, and how long it stays over water before making landfall, which will affect its intensity. No call on this yet, but it could get as far north as Vero. Gonna check the 6z to see if the GFS is still to the right of the guidance. Saw the CMC, and don't like that solution as it rapidly intensifies the system, brings it into Florida, gets almost to TAmpa, then heads it NE! Is this showing a weaker ridge?? More to come.....back to work. Cheesr!!
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