already posted to Lois that the system is consolidating to the west with the system heading NW. System is getting better organized but dont think it will reach hurricane strength until later tomorrow. Pressure is at 1003mb and should slowly drop thru the evening and more so after that as the dry air completly thins out and the upper low to its sw weakens even more. With the projected forcast track,,its ahard one for floridians cause of where it will make that turn w or wsw into florida and when. Its basically a speed issue with the system. Currently its been moving alittle faster then forcasted by most models except the better Nogaps. The Nogaps has though been alittle left. The 12zs are out and continue to show a slow movement inland near WPB county from the Nogaps tomorrow night, CMC Friday morning, GFS and GFDL later Friday into Friday night. IF the early Nogaps confirms then I expect a weak hurricane near 80mph making landfall nearWPB County, infact I see it going onshore anywhere from Vero-Ft lauderdale still from a couple days back. IF the GFS confirms a slowdown and movement onshore Friday night then expect a system from 90mph-100mph. Looking at the data from many sources I will tend to lean towards then middle. Kinda obvious but the hard part is forecasting where it goes after exiting the west coast. I expect first landfall to be around midday Friday-Friday evening with winds around 90mph. A slow w or wsw movement to off Ft.Myers area. It should go down to a strong TS but later Saturday night be upgraded to a hurricane again. It should continue to strengthn possibly up to a Cat 3 by Sunday morning. There is nothing to impead this that I can see. A trough will extend down over the SE US by Sunday and will push the system NNW late Saturday night into Sunday with a bend to the N or NNE somewhere from N of Clearwater-NewPRichie to Cross City later Sunday night or Monday. Again the key will be in the next 48-60 hours on how fast the system comes inland on the east coast of florida. IF faster then it will be a weak hurricane and will make it into the gulf faster and move inline with the NOGAPS model which takes it into the Panhandle of Florida Sunday. Alittle slower will put it in my forecasted path and even slower then me will push this up the peninsula as a TS. Anyways more will be updated late tonight.
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