Do you mean the first landfall or the second landfall?
It's getting a little disconcerting sitting here on the Gulf Coast north of Tampa. The 12Z UKMET has now swung with the CMC, GFDL, and GFS toward a much more west coast hugging storm in the GOM which would be deepening just offshore. It'll be interesting to see the 12Z NOGAPs since this model now seems to be the far western outlier once the storm enters the GOM. The GFDL takes KAT to a 105 kt storm off of Tampa from the 06Z run. I can only hope that it follows NOGAPs or turns north while it's still on the peninsula. I'm thinking maybe a GOM track adjustment to the east with the next NHC advisory.
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