Hey folks, just got in and have had a chance to go over the NHC products, as well as some of the radar and satellite imagery. I think we will see Katrina make the turn to the left pretty smartly within the next 12 hours. This may be accomapnied by some meandering or erratic movement, but should result in a generally westward motion by the middle part of tomorrow. Satellite imagery is showing some hints of this already beginning, as has some of the recon fixes - although they could have been transient centres. Additionally, Katrina is still in the process of organising, whcih she has done quite impressively today, and this will also have some effect on short term motion. As far as intenisty goes, it is a tough call. I like the NHC's discussion, highlighting the possibility for rapid intensification. I dont think we will see this occur in the short term - i.e tonight, as there seems to be too much reorganising going on at the moment. However, once the westward turn has occurred, i think we could see some pretty rapid intensification, and if this occurs, i wouldnt totally rule out landfall as a Cat2. After florida there is so much divergence and spread in the forecast models that at this stage i really wouldnt want to put a pin in it! However, Katrina will certainly be one for you folks over there in Florida to be watching very closely. Official watches / warnings will also likely go out for the west coast of Florida within the next 12 hours.
97L is also still holding its own, and has become rather more organised today. NHC indicates it could become TD13 on Thursday too.
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