I don't think you'll see any major shift of the track at 5pm. Some members are still to the left of the NHC landfall position, including the GFDL, with the NOGAPS and CONU very close to the official track. As with the past three advisories, I imagine the track forecast will largely be an extension of the previous one. Recall that the NHC doesn't use the CMC very much and the MM5 hardly at all in making track forecasts.
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