Quote: Tiny jog to the south in a couple of the last frames of the IR... I know jogs don't indicate motion, but as south as Katrina has wanted to go, it's worth thinking about. I was not surprised to see the slighly westward shift to the NHC track... however, it was not as large as I was hoping for, probably because motion was due west from 2am-5am. Again, the longer the west motion, the later the turn, the more west the track will shift. As things stand right now, I expect NO to turn into total chaos. The annoying part is I really don't want to evacuate, but pressure from family will encourage this behavior. If things are going to change, they better do so quickly to prevent people in NO (my mom included) from going psycho.
If people in N.O. don't LEAVE now... they won't be able to get out in time, I'm afraid. The time for going psycho if you live there was about 12 hours ago. By the time Katrina makes her move - if that's where it decides to go - it will be too late to do anything but pray really hard, I'm afraid.
Having said that, it's too early to say that Katrina will even effect N.O.
Update: Just looked at the model runs - some of which have been updated. They are now tightening around or just to the east of New Orleans. It just seems to be getting worse for the Louisiana delta.
Also see a tiny northward jog in the last two or three images on the WV loop, before that it was a south jog so that is a wash. The eye has filled in, probably the result of EWR, so when it comes back Katrina will likely strengthen. Weather channel is saying 940 pressure but the recon I just read says 942 - but is labelled "Preliminary!"
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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