Quote: Has the NHC mentioned why they are leaning to the west of the models on their last 2 runs where with most of their previous tracks they have leaned to the East of the model consensus?
Expect it to change in the future. We saw a 150 mi west adjustment yesterday. With the storm 60 hrs away from landfall, there will be smaller shifts with time. The NHC likes to avoid major changes (like yesterday), so if they see a consistent trend with consensus in the models they will gradually move in that direction.
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