Londovir, Lili is still getting hammered by shear from the ULL to its SW and I've also had trouble figuring why the fix on the center was put where it was. Look at the latest IR loops and you will see the convection getting pulled in towards the center which is on the SW side of the convection. She is there and yes your eyes aren't deceiving you, the convection is getting torn northward. This will settle out towards morning and tomorrow we will see a more organized system. Latest GFDL has her going into the Yucatan at 120 (like they need it). Don't agree with that. Think it will go over Cuba and run up the Fl east or west coast. GOM possible, but I think it will run out of ridge. Izzy will still get cranked. Trust me. T'storms now coming in from the NE closer towards the center. I still say Cat 2, maybe 110 mph. Cheers!! Steve H.
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