yeah, haven't heard much about the offshore rigs.. but i'd imagine katrina did them worse than ivan did last year. quick runthrough of the tropics... two potential fishspinners in former td 13 (which is moving north to the east of bermuda and getting more organized) and 91L.. which is moving NW and slated for a similar track. the shear zone it appears to be breaking has peeled back the convection enough to see a well defined llc.. could have been rated yesterday. when/if the convection gets back over the center, it probably will. invest 92L is being tracked south of the cape verdes. it will have to maintain for a couple of days before doing anything, but computer models are more favorable to this one than the other two (though the other two are tracked as discrete features, neither is developed a great deal). numerous models still showing a response feature caught underneath the large high slated to dive into the NE this weekend. they vary from showing it well off the east coast to just east of florida, to even in the gulf. it looks synoptically sound, so i wouldn't be surprised if it tries to develop... may be shear issues for it as the trough bypasses and a piece splits away to the west. SOI has been pulsing up and down all month. the result is plenty of backing in the deep tropics but also plenty of upper lows and shear zones to negotiate. with more poleward moving systems late in september and in october, this sort of pattern could support a very active late season in the caribbean/near the east coast... but it has plenty of time to transition. will see. HF 1419z31august
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