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Development chances for 96L up to 70%. Recon did not find a good center. Development more likely tomorrow.
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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2285
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Hurricane Maria and Other Culprits
      Sun Sep 04 2005 09:32 AM

4PM 5-Sep-2005 Update
Were watching the tropical wave in the Bahamas called 94L for potential development because of its proximity to land.



However, Tropical Depression #14 may form from another tropical wave in the atlantic within the hour.

Original Update
Earlier this morning Maria reached Cat I status - the fifth hurricane of the season. Maria is in the central Atlantic moving north at 15mph. She is expected to continue on a northerly course - and eventually northeast - and should pose no threat to land.

NHC is now monitoring a new area of interest (Invest 93L) to the east of the central Bahamas - see the Storm Forum for initial info on this disturbed area. A weak surface low was located near 26.5N 66.5W at 04/12Z with convection primarily south of the low. The low was drifting slowly to the north and slow development of this system is possible. Models generally take the system north and then northeast .

A weak surface low is centered in the northern Bahamas near 26N 78W at 04/12Z. This system is currently poorly organized, however, the UK Met model does develop this area into a tropical cyclone and take it to the north - very slowly. Other model solutions show a wide range of expected tracks. Too early to say whether this area will develop or not, but it is certainly an area to monitor.

Invest 92L was showing new signs of increased convection near 10N 52W at 04/12Z. The system is moving west northwest into an area that is more favorable for development and this could become a Tropical Depression in the next day or two. Models intensify this system and move it into the central Caribbean Sea south of the Dominican Republic by mid-week - worth keeping a close eye on this one.
ED

Event Related Links
Bahamas Weather/Radar

Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Miami, Key West, Melbourne

Maria

Animated model plots of Maria

Invests 93L, and 94L


Edited by MikeC (Mon Sep 05 2005 04:31 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Hurricane Maria and Other Culprits Ed DunhamAdministrator Sun Sep 04 2005 09:32 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Maria and Other Culprits hurricane expert   Mon Sep 05 2005 01:10 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Maria and Other Culprits WXMAN RICHIE   Mon Sep 05 2005 01:15 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Maria and Other Culprits Hugh   Mon Sep 05 2005 01:24 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Maria and Other Culprits Steve H1   Mon Sep 05 2005 01:42 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Maria and Other Culprits weatherwatcher2   Mon Sep 05 2005 03:12 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Maria and Other Culprits weatherwatcher2   Mon Sep 05 2005 03:14 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Maria and Other Culprits VolusiaMike   Mon Sep 05 2005 03:54 PM
. * * Local Mets. take WXMAN RICHIE   Mon Sep 05 2005 04:18 PM
. * * Re: Local Mets. take Storm Hunter   Mon Sep 05 2005 04:33 PM
. * * Re: Local Mets. take Hugh   Mon Sep 05 2005 04:36 PM
. * * New TD 15 Lisa NC   Mon Sep 05 2005 04:29 PM
. * * Re: New TD 15 Steve H1   Mon Sep 05 2005 04:35 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Maria and Other Culprits DebbiePSL   Mon Sep 05 2005 03:20 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Maria and Other Culprits NewWatcher   Mon Sep 05 2005 03:10 PM
. * * Maria has formed an eye......Cat 3 anyone? lunkerhunter   Mon Sep 05 2005 10:45 AM
. * * Re: Maria has formed an eye......Cat 3 anyone? Hugh   Mon Sep 05 2005 10:56 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Maria and Other Culprits jusforsean   Sun Sep 04 2005 11:24 AM
. * * spin starting?? ftlaudbob   Sun Sep 04 2005 11:44 AM
. * * Re: spin starting?? stormchazer   Sun Sep 04 2005 12:19 PM
. * * Re: spin starting?? Ryan   Sun Sep 04 2005 02:39 PM
. * * Re: spin starting?? Reaper   Sun Sep 04 2005 03:45 PM
. * * Re: spin starting?? h2ocean   Sun Sep 04 2005 03:57 PM
. * * Re: spin starting?? Rich B   Sun Sep 04 2005 05:09 PM
. * * Re: spin starting?? Random Chaos   Sun Sep 04 2005 05:59 PM
. * * Re: spin starting?? DebbiePSL   Sun Sep 04 2005 10:00 PM
. * * Re: spin starting?? Sheeper   Sun Sep 04 2005 10:11 PM
. * * Re: spin starting?? Random Chaos   Sun Sep 04 2005 10:10 PM
. * * Re: spin starting?? DebbiePSL   Sun Sep 04 2005 10:27 PM
. * * Re: spin starting?? Random Chaos   Sun Sep 04 2005 10:36 PM
. * * Re: spin starting?? Genesis   Sun Sep 04 2005 10:10 PM
. * * Re: spin starting?? Lysis   Sun Sep 04 2005 10:06 PM
. * * Re: spin starting?? SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Sun Sep 04 2005 10:18 PM
. * * Re: spin starting?? Random Chaos   Sun Sep 04 2005 09:15 PM
. * * Re: spin starting?? jlauderdal   Sun Sep 04 2005 09:35 PM
. * * Re: spin starting?? SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Sun Sep 04 2005 09:32 PM
. * * "Anular" Hurricane JulieTampa   Sun Sep 04 2005 09:32 PM
. * * Re: "Anular" Hurricane Margie   Mon Sep 05 2005 02:27 AM
. * * Re: SE FL Circulation Ron Basso   Mon Sep 05 2005 08:44 AM
. * * Re: SE FL Circulation Black Pearl   Mon Sep 05 2005 09:24 AM
. * * Re: SE FL Circulation NewWatcher   Mon Sep 05 2005 10:45 AM
. * * Re: SE FL Circulation zacros   Mon Sep 05 2005 10:55 AM
. * * Re: SE FL Circulation NewWatcher   Mon Sep 05 2005 10:55 AM
. * * Re: SE FL Circulation Hugh   Mon Sep 05 2005 10:58 AM
. * * Re: SE FL Circulation NewWatcher   Mon Sep 05 2005 10:59 AM
. * * Re: SE FL Circulation NewWatcher   Mon Sep 05 2005 11:02 AM
. * * Re: SE FL Circulation Hugh   Mon Sep 05 2005 11:22 AM
. * * Re: SE FL Circulation CocoCrk   Mon Sep 05 2005 12:55 PM
. * * Re: SE FL Circulation h2ocean   Mon Sep 05 2005 12:26 PM
. * * Re: SE FL Circulation B.C.Francis   Mon Sep 05 2005 12:48 PM
. * * 94L, GFDL Ryan   Mon Sep 05 2005 12:51 PM
. * * Re: 94L, GFDL Hugh   Mon Sep 05 2005 12:59 PM
. * * Re: SE FL Circulation Jekyhe904   Mon Sep 05 2005 12:22 PM
. * * Re: SE FL Circulation NewWatcher   Mon Sep 05 2005 11:05 AM
. * * Re: SE FL Circulation WXMAN RICHIE   Mon Sep 05 2005 11:14 AM
. * * Re: SE FL Circulation weatherwatcher2   Mon Sep 05 2005 11:21 AM
. * * Re: SE FL Circulation LoisCane   Mon Sep 05 2005 12:45 PM
. * * Re: "Anular" Hurricane Random Chaos   Sun Sep 04 2005 10:05 PM
. * * Re: "Anular" Hurricane SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Sun Sep 04 2005 09:46 PM
. * * Re: "Anular" Hurricane Storm Hunter   Sun Sep 04 2005 10:38 PM
. * * plague of invests HanKFranK   Sun Sep 04 2005 11:23 PM
. * * Re: plague of invests Ryan   Sun Sep 04 2005 11:33 PM
. * * Re: plague of invests *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* Ryan   Mon Sep 05 2005 12:32 AM
. * * Re: plague of invests weatherwatcher2   Mon Sep 05 2005 01:13 AM
. * * Re: plague of invests Storm Hunter   Mon Sep 05 2005 01:46 AM
. * * Re: plague of invests Random Chaos   Mon Sep 05 2005 08:32 AM
. * * Re: plague of invests Random Chaos   Mon Sep 05 2005 09:21 AM
. * * Closest to home WXMAN RICHIE   Sun Sep 04 2005 09:50 AM
. * * Re: Closest to home Genesis   Sun Sep 04 2005 11:10 AM

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