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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: SE FL Circulation
      Mon Sep 05 2005 08:44 AM

The long range Miami RAD clearly shows a circulation spinning about 100 miles east. Convection appears to be growing and the system is stationary at the moment. Global models are still split with the 00Z NOGAPs & UKMET taking the system slowly up the east coast of FL. The FSUmm5 also does this too. All of the models that run the low pressure up the coast do so very slowly - on the order of 3 to 5 days to go from SE FL to near JAX due to a massive high pressure system centered off the east coast. The other camp of models are the 06Z GFS, 00Z GFDL, and 00Z CMC which either takes the system W-NW across the peninsula into the GOM or more northward into the north-central part of the peninsula. Climatology would argue for an up the coast scenario but with the massive high pressure system slow to give way (HPC predicting rather strong zonal flow across eastern US with a deep trough along the NW US), the high looks to simply elongate east-west. Latest HPC discussion indicates that eastern High may actually strengthen:

OVER THE ERN STATES...MASSIVE SUMMERY RIDGE WILL HOLD
SWAY...WITH THE EC BUILDING HEIGHTS ALL THE WAY TO LABRADOR AS
EARLY AS DAY 5.

With the eastern High blocking any significant movement up the coast, I tend to think the latest 06Z GFS run is about right with a slow progression W-NW across the peninsula eventually into the GOM. The 00Z GFDL is a truely frightening scenario taking the storm into the GOM, strengtening it into a 120 kt hurricane and bringing that storm into NO in 5 days. For FL, perhaps a moderate tropical storm prior to landfall quickly weakening to a TD over the peninsula - lots of rain though with a slow movement.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kamx.shtml

--------------------
RJB

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Hurricane Maria and Other Culprits Ed DunhamAdministrator Mon Sep 05 2005 08:44 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Maria and Other Culprits hurricane expert   Mon Sep 05 2005 01:10 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Maria and Other Culprits WXMAN RICHIE   Mon Sep 05 2005 01:15 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Maria and Other Culprits Hugh   Mon Sep 05 2005 01:24 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Maria and Other Culprits Steve H1   Mon Sep 05 2005 01:42 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Maria and Other Culprits weatherwatcher2   Mon Sep 05 2005 03:12 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Maria and Other Culprits weatherwatcher2   Mon Sep 05 2005 03:14 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Maria and Other Culprits VolusiaMike   Mon Sep 05 2005 03:54 PM
. * * Local Mets. take WXMAN RICHIE   Mon Sep 05 2005 04:18 PM
. * * Re: Local Mets. take Storm Hunter   Mon Sep 05 2005 04:33 PM
. * * Re: Local Mets. take Hugh   Mon Sep 05 2005 04:36 PM
. * * New TD 15 Lisa NC   Mon Sep 05 2005 04:29 PM
. * * Re: New TD 15 Steve H1   Mon Sep 05 2005 04:35 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Maria and Other Culprits DebbiePSL   Mon Sep 05 2005 03:20 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Maria and Other Culprits NewWatcher   Mon Sep 05 2005 03:10 PM
. * * Maria has formed an eye......Cat 3 anyone? lunkerhunter   Mon Sep 05 2005 10:45 AM
. * * Re: Maria has formed an eye......Cat 3 anyone? Hugh   Mon Sep 05 2005 10:56 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Maria and Other Culprits jusforsean   Sun Sep 04 2005 11:24 AM
. * * spin starting?? ftlaudbob   Sun Sep 04 2005 11:44 AM
. * * Re: spin starting?? stormchazer   Sun Sep 04 2005 12:19 PM
. * * Re: spin starting?? Ryan   Sun Sep 04 2005 02:39 PM
. * * Re: spin starting?? Reaper   Sun Sep 04 2005 03:45 PM
. * * Re: spin starting?? h2ocean   Sun Sep 04 2005 03:57 PM
. * * Re: spin starting?? Rich B   Sun Sep 04 2005 05:09 PM
. * * Re: spin starting?? Random Chaos   Sun Sep 04 2005 05:59 PM
. * * Re: spin starting?? DebbiePSL   Sun Sep 04 2005 10:00 PM
. * * Re: spin starting?? Sheeper   Sun Sep 04 2005 10:11 PM
. * * Re: spin starting?? Random Chaos   Sun Sep 04 2005 10:10 PM
. * * Re: spin starting?? DebbiePSL   Sun Sep 04 2005 10:27 PM
. * * Re: spin starting?? Random Chaos   Sun Sep 04 2005 10:36 PM
. * * Re: spin starting?? Genesis   Sun Sep 04 2005 10:10 PM
. * * Re: spin starting?? Lysis   Sun Sep 04 2005 10:06 PM
. * * Re: spin starting?? SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Sun Sep 04 2005 10:18 PM
. * * Re: spin starting?? Random Chaos   Sun Sep 04 2005 09:15 PM
. * * Re: spin starting?? jlauderdal   Sun Sep 04 2005 09:35 PM
. * * Re: spin starting?? SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Sun Sep 04 2005 09:32 PM
. * * "Anular" Hurricane JulieTampa   Sun Sep 04 2005 09:32 PM
. * * Re: "Anular" Hurricane Margie   Mon Sep 05 2005 02:27 AM
. * * Re: SE FL Circulation Ron Basso   Mon Sep 05 2005 08:44 AM
. * * Re: SE FL Circulation Black Pearl   Mon Sep 05 2005 09:24 AM
. * * Re: SE FL Circulation NewWatcher   Mon Sep 05 2005 10:45 AM
. * * Re: SE FL Circulation zacros   Mon Sep 05 2005 10:55 AM
. * * Re: SE FL Circulation NewWatcher   Mon Sep 05 2005 10:55 AM
. * * Re: SE FL Circulation Hugh   Mon Sep 05 2005 10:58 AM
. * * Re: SE FL Circulation NewWatcher   Mon Sep 05 2005 10:59 AM
. * * Re: SE FL Circulation NewWatcher   Mon Sep 05 2005 11:02 AM
. * * Re: SE FL Circulation Hugh   Mon Sep 05 2005 11:22 AM
. * * Re: SE FL Circulation CocoCrk   Mon Sep 05 2005 12:55 PM
. * * Re: SE FL Circulation h2ocean   Mon Sep 05 2005 12:26 PM
. * * Re: SE FL Circulation B.C.Francis   Mon Sep 05 2005 12:48 PM
. * * 94L, GFDL Ryan   Mon Sep 05 2005 12:51 PM
. * * Re: 94L, GFDL Hugh   Mon Sep 05 2005 12:59 PM
. * * Re: SE FL Circulation Jekyhe904   Mon Sep 05 2005 12:22 PM
. * * Re: SE FL Circulation NewWatcher   Mon Sep 05 2005 11:05 AM
. * * Re: SE FL Circulation WXMAN RICHIE   Mon Sep 05 2005 11:14 AM
. * * Re: SE FL Circulation weatherwatcher2   Mon Sep 05 2005 11:21 AM
. * * Re: SE FL Circulation LoisCane   Mon Sep 05 2005 12:45 PM
. * * Re: "Anular" Hurricane Random Chaos   Sun Sep 04 2005 10:05 PM
. * * Re: "Anular" Hurricane SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Sun Sep 04 2005 09:46 PM
. * * Re: "Anular" Hurricane Storm Hunter   Sun Sep 04 2005 10:38 PM
. * * plague of invests HanKFranK   Sun Sep 04 2005 11:23 PM
. * * Re: plague of invests Ryan   Sun Sep 04 2005 11:33 PM
. * * Re: plague of invests *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* Ryan   Mon Sep 05 2005 12:32 AM
. * * Re: plague of invests weatherwatcher2   Mon Sep 05 2005 01:13 AM
. * * Re: plague of invests Storm Hunter   Mon Sep 05 2005 01:46 AM
. * * Re: plague of invests Random Chaos   Mon Sep 05 2005 08:32 AM
. * * Re: plague of invests Random Chaos   Mon Sep 05 2005 09:21 AM
. * * Closest to home WXMAN RICHIE   Sun Sep 04 2005 09:50 AM
. * * Re: Closest to home Genesis   Sun Sep 04 2005 11:10 AM

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