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Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 211 (Idalia) , Major: 211 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 211 (Idalia) Major: 211 (Idalia)
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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Quick hit thoughts
      Wed Sep 07 2005 06:31 AM

Looking at Ophelia this morning I'm not liking what the models are doing to its track. It would be better just to slam it into FL before it has a chance to strengthen. Instead GFS, NOGAPS, and UKMET are having it do a cyclonic loop. This matches with the NHC forcast track, sending it back towards FL in about 5 days as a Hurricane.

She has taken on the classic Comma shape so often seen on strong TS's and weak hurricanes. I wouldn't be surprised if the next Dvorak numbers saw her stronger. I'd guess she might be a 3 now, but I'm no expert .

GFDL still isn't handling the storm well. The model has been very consistant about taking her into FL and across into the gulf. Ophelia just doesn't seem to want to do that. Additionally it seems that GFDL isn't even strengthening Ophelia when she deserves to be strengthened (the last run doesn't bring her to TS strength until she's in the Gulf...yet Ophelia has reached it). It did the same thing with Katrina - failed to develop the storm correctly. I'm wondering if the GFDL just doesn't do well with Bahamas-area systems? It's done outstanding with almost everything else.

CMC is the nicest forcast. It takes Ophelia out to sea in Nate's wake. Unfortunately I don't see this one coming to pass anymore than the GFDL solution.

--RC

P.S. - now we have 50 AM over at NHC. Someone needs to realize that there aren't 50 hours in either the first half or the last half of a day

Edited by Random Chaos (Wed Sep 07 2005 06:42 AM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast MikeCAdministrator Wed Sep 07 2005 06:31 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast zacros   Wed Sep 07 2005 06:31 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast crpeavley   Tue Sep 06 2005 08:01 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Jekyhe904   Tue Sep 06 2005 06:00 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Rasvar   Tue Sep 06 2005 09:19 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast weatherwatcher2   Tue Sep 06 2005 09:41 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Rasvar   Tue Sep 06 2005 09:53 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Beaumont, TX   Tue Sep 06 2005 09:55 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Colleen A.   Tue Sep 06 2005 09:40 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast GuppieGrouper   Tue Sep 06 2005 09:29 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Random Chaos   Tue Sep 06 2005 09:47 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast weatherwatcher2   Tue Sep 06 2005 09:58 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Random Chaos   Tue Sep 06 2005 10:19 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Clark   Tue Sep 06 2005 10:49 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Random Chaos   Tue Sep 06 2005 11:38 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Catawba   Tue Sep 06 2005 11:14 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Clark   Wed Sep 07 2005 12:41 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Beaumont, TX   Wed Sep 07 2005 09:05 AM
. * * Quick hit thoughts Clark   Wed Sep 07 2005 01:44 AM
. * * Re: Quick hit thoughts Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 07 2005 02:18 AM
. * * Re: Quick hit thoughts Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 07 2005 02:20 AM
. * * Re: Quick hit thoughts Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 07 2005 02:34 AM
. * * Re: Quick hit thoughts Random Chaos   Wed Sep 07 2005 06:31 AM
. * * Re: Quick hit thoughts Hugh   Wed Sep 07 2005 06:46 AM
. * * Re: Quick hit thoughts emackl   Wed Sep 07 2005 07:46 AM
. * * Re: Quick hit thoughts tpratch   Wed Sep 07 2005 07:52 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast scottsvb   Wed Sep 07 2005 01:26 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 07 2005 01:43 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Storm Hunter   Tue Sep 06 2005 10:29 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Storm Hunter   Tue Sep 06 2005 10:33 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast dolfinatic   Tue Sep 06 2005 11:17 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Tue Sep 06 2005 11:50 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Colleen A.   Wed Sep 07 2005 12:05 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Storm Hunter   Tue Sep 06 2005 10:07 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Hugh   Tue Sep 06 2005 10:31 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Clark   Tue Sep 06 2005 09:56 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast disneyfanfl   Tue Sep 06 2005 06:28 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast MikeCAdministrator   Tue Sep 06 2005 08:26 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast tpratch   Tue Sep 06 2005 06:31 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Hootowl   Tue Sep 06 2005 06:40 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Beaumont, TX   Tue Sep 06 2005 11:43 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast tpratch   Tue Sep 06 2005 11:49 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Beaumont, TX   Tue Sep 06 2005 12:00 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Rich B   Tue Sep 06 2005 12:13 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast native   Tue Sep 06 2005 12:47 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast The Force 2005   Tue Sep 06 2005 12:42 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast trinibaje   Tue Sep 06 2005 12:52 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Brad in Miami   Tue Sep 06 2005 01:22 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast The Force 2005   Wed Sep 07 2005 09:22 AM
. * * ophelia.... HanKFranK   Tue Sep 06 2005 01:43 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast NewWatcher   Tue Sep 06 2005 01:29 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Hootowl   Tue Sep 06 2005 01:44 PM
. * * Re: TD16 Ron Basso   Tue Sep 06 2005 02:56 PM
. * * Re: TD16 native   Tue Sep 06 2005 03:14 PM
. * * Re: TD16 Ron Basso   Tue Sep 06 2005 03:50 PM
. * * Gulf Of Mexico Myles   Tue Sep 06 2005 04:00 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Of Mexico Brad in Miami   Tue Sep 06 2005 04:29 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Of Mexico Storm Hunter   Tue Sep 06 2005 04:34 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Of Mexico Ed in Va   Tue Sep 06 2005 04:38 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Of Mexico Thunderbird12   Tue Sep 06 2005 04:54 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Of Mexico Rabbit   Tue Sep 06 2005 05:48 PM
. * * Todays activity Rich B   Tue Sep 06 2005 06:05 PM
. * * Re: Todays activity DebbiePSL   Tue Sep 06 2005 06:23 PM
. * * Re: Todays activity Random Chaos   Tue Sep 06 2005 06:35 PM
. * * Re: Todays activity DebbiePSL   Tue Sep 06 2005 06:55 PM
. * * Re: Todays activity Ryan   Tue Sep 06 2005 07:05 PM
. * * Re: Todays activity Random Chaos   Tue Sep 06 2005 07:10 PM
. * * Re: Todays activity Hugh   Tue Sep 06 2005 07:22 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Of Mexico Random Chaos   Tue Sep 06 2005 05:48 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Of Mexico doug   Tue Sep 06 2005 04:24 PM
. * * uh oh... Rick on boat in Mobile   Tue Sep 06 2005 04:34 PM
. * * Re: uh oh... native   Tue Sep 06 2005 04:52 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Of Mexico Tazmanian93   Tue Sep 06 2005 04:21 PM
. * * Re: TD16 Clark   Tue Sep 06 2005 03:48 PM
. * * Latest vortex message Brad in Miami   Tue Sep 06 2005 04:00 PM
. * * WX in Charleston Anton Ross   Tue Sep 06 2005 03:09 PM
. * * Maria Robert   Mon Sep 05 2005 09:31 PM
. * * Observations in bahamas as of 8:00pm Robert   Mon Sep 05 2005 08:49 PM
. * * Re: Observations in bahamas as of 8:00pm GuppieGrouper   Mon Sep 05 2005 09:22 PM
. * * Re: Observations in bahamas as of 8:00pm danielwAdministrator   Mon Sep 05 2005 09:56 PM
. * * Re: Observations in bahamas as of 8:00pm Ricreig   Tue Sep 06 2005 08:51 AM
. * * Re: Observations in bahamas as of 8:00pm Clark   Tue Sep 06 2005 12:56 AM
. * * setting the pace HanKFranK   Mon Sep 05 2005 05:38 PM
. * * Re: setting the pace 317288   Mon Sep 05 2005 10:05 PM
. * * Re: setting the pace Storm Hunter   Mon Sep 05 2005 10:42 PM
. * * upgrade? HanKFranK   Mon Sep 05 2005 11:01 PM
. * * Re: upgrade? Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Sep 05 2005 11:05 PM
. * * Re: setting the pace Hootowl   Mon Sep 05 2005 06:55 PM
. * * busy busy busy Ryan   Mon Sep 05 2005 07:53 PM
. * * Re: busy busy busy tpratch   Mon Sep 05 2005 08:44 PM
. * * Re: busy busy busy Ryan   Mon Sep 05 2005 11:31 PM
. * * Re: busy busy busy LadyStorm   Tue Sep 06 2005 05:41 AM
. * * Re: busy busy busy Random Chaos   Tue Sep 06 2005 07:43 AM
. * * Re: busy busy busy GuppieGrouper   Tue Sep 06 2005 08:09 AM
. * * Indications Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Sep 06 2005 09:36 AM
. * * here goes HanKFranK   Tue Sep 06 2005 09:50 AM
. * * The loop twizted sizter   Tue Sep 06 2005 10:02 AM
. * * Re: The loop native   Tue Sep 06 2005 10:49 AM
. * * Re: The loop DJINFLA   Tue Sep 06 2005 11:30 AM
. * * Re: The loop FlaMommy   Tue Sep 06 2005 10:56 AM
. * * Re: The loop Clark   Tue Sep 06 2005 11:36 AM
. * * Re: The loop native   Tue Sep 06 2005 11:54 AM
. * * Re: The loop NewWatcher   Tue Sep 06 2005 11:57 AM
. * * Re: The loop Juanjo   Tue Sep 06 2005 11:03 AM
. * * Re: The loop GuppieGrouper   Tue Sep 06 2005 11:46 AM
. * * Re: The loop Steve H1   Tue Sep 06 2005 11:56 AM
. * * Re: The loop Hootowl   Tue Sep 06 2005 12:09 PM
. * * Re: The loop MikeCAdministrator   Tue Sep 06 2005 11:28 AM
. * * Re: The loop Wingman51   Tue Sep 06 2005 11:01 AM
. * * Re: The loop Ed in Va   Tue Sep 06 2005 10:53 AM
. * * Re: busy busy busy Colleen A.   Tue Sep 06 2005 09:13 AM
. * * Re: busy busy busy Steve H1   Tue Sep 06 2005 09:22 AM
. * * TD 16 FORMS! recmod   Tue Sep 06 2005 09:23 AM
. * * Re: TD 16 FORMS! emackl   Tue Sep 06 2005 09:27 AM
. * * Re: TD 16 FORMS! Ron Basso   Tue Sep 06 2005 10:54 AM
. * * Re: TD 16 FORMS! Steve H1   Tue Sep 06 2005 09:32 AM
. * * Re: TD 16 FORMS! emackl   Tue Sep 06 2005 09:35 AM
. * * Re: busy busy busy Random Chaos   Tue Sep 06 2005 08:27 AM
. * * Wave Off FL Coast cjzydeco   Mon Sep 05 2005 05:34 PM

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