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News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

CFHCAdministrator



Reged: Sun
Posts: 148
Loc: East Central Florida
Now to Kyle And Lili
      Fri Sep 27 2002 04:59 AM

What an amazing track Isidore was.... first getting a run in with South America it pulled north a bit to enter the Western Caribbean. Was it planned to be a problem for Jamaica or Cuba at the time? No, but it flooded Jamaica and grazed the western part of Cuba. Now it was to move west... right?

Projections had it to go west then loop in the gulf and head north, rightly so many along the Gulf coast started to watch Isidore like a hawk. A few models hinted at a southerly jog first, but not into the Yucatan. Category 3 almost a 4, oops Isidore slides south into the hurricane warning area causing much pain to the North Yucatan coastline in Mexico. This rather impressive storm collapsed over the Yucatan, but it was so big the energy was disbursed, after it eventually moved back over the water it was unable to do anything more than hold its own... almost in a way that parts of the system were non tropical and others were.... Causing rain even to Florida it dumped copious amounts of rain along the coast and caused a minor storm surge in the New Orleans area...

To those who think Isidore was a bust, be glad, the alternative of a category 3 or 4 hitting New Orleans is not pretty. Much like Hurricane Bret a few years ago hitting in an unpopulated area in Texas, this one managed to avert a real catastrophe. Our intent here is not to want storms like this to hit, but to provide information to help determine what is going on. The interest level is higher amongst people when a major is in the Gulf, the numbers prove it, for reason... It could affect many people. The entire time I wanted it to fall apart and was looking for ways for it to happen. The Yucatan landfall wasn't it for me. Mexico sure did not need it. The rather light hit on New Orleans may be a slight wakeup call for them, though, and if that's the case then that would be the good side to it.

Lili will follow fairly closely Isidore's previous path near Jamaica and Cuba, and after that I'm not able to say yet, but of course again we must all watch it. There are Tropical Storm watches up now for Jamaica.

Kyle is backing down fairly far south and believe it or not we still may have to watch this one along the Eastern Seaboard. Models differ some one to loop it around and back northeast, others like the AVN pull it southeast even more.




NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City Weather Audio Broadcast Network - Live Audio from Jim Williams and Barometer Bob , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut, Ed Dunham and Jason M in our Storm Forum Even more on the links page.



- [mac]

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Now to Kyle And Lili CFHCAdministrator Fri Sep 27 2002 04:59 AM
. * * Re: Now to Kyle And Lili david stuart   Sun Sep 29 2002 12:37 PM
. * * Re: Now to Kyle And Lili JustMe   Sun Sep 29 2002 05:45 PM
. * * Re: Now to Kyle And Lili usufruct   Sun Sep 29 2002 05:31 PM
. * * kyle lili 94L HanKFranK   Sun Sep 29 2002 02:04 PM
. * * Lili CLOF   Sun Sep 29 2002 05:42 PM
. * * Re: Lili Mary K.   Sun Sep 29 2002 05:58 PM
. * * cause for disagreement HanKFranK   Sun Sep 29 2002 06:21 PM
. * * Re: cause for disagreement 57497479   Sun Sep 29 2002 08:09 PM
. * * Re: Now to Kyle And Lili game   Sun Sep 29 2002 11:45 AM
. * * Re: Now to Kyle And Lili Kevin   Sat Sep 28 2002 10:16 AM
. * * Re: Now to Kyle And Lili Frank J P   Sat Sep 28 2002 10:35 AM
. * * Re: Now to Kyle And Lili Anonymous   Sat Sep 28 2002 01:06 PM
. * * kyle lili 94L HanKFranK   Sat Sep 28 2002 01:43 PM
. * * Re: kyle lili 94L Kevin   Sat Sep 28 2002 03:06 PM
. * * Re: kyle lili 94L jlauderdal   Sat Sep 28 2002 04:19 PM
. * * Re: kyle lili 94L joepub1   Sat Sep 28 2002 04:08 PM
. * * Re: kyle lili 94L Mary K.   Sat Sep 28 2002 04:19 PM
. * * Re: kyle lili 94L HanKFranK   Sat Sep 28 2002 04:59 PM
. * * Re: Kyle synoptics Kevin   Sat Sep 28 2002 06:20 PM
. * * Will Lili take a track similar to Georges Frank J P   Sat Sep 28 2002 07:40 PM
. * * Re: Will Lili take a track similar to Georges Mary K.   Sat Sep 28 2002 08:11 PM
. * * Re: Will Lili take a track similar to Georges Domino   Sat Sep 28 2002 09:16 PM
. * * Re: Will Lili take a track similar to Georges tupac   Sat Sep 28 2002 08:41 PM
. * * Question Bruce   Sat Sep 28 2002 07:28 PM
. * * Re: Question Ricreig   Sat Sep 28 2002 09:02 PM
. * * Re: Question joepub1   Sat Sep 28 2002 09:30 PM
. * * Re: Question joepub1   Sat Sep 28 2002 10:05 PM
. * * Re: Question somebody   Sat Sep 28 2002 10:26 PM
. * * Re: Question Bruce   Sat Sep 28 2002 10:34 PM
. * * Here's a prediction Stevenotloggedin   Sat Sep 28 2002 11:16 PM
. * * Re: Here's a prediction 57497479   Sun Sep 29 2002 08:27 AM
. * * Re: Here's a prediction Mary K.   Sun Sep 29 2002 08:59 AM
. * * Re: Here's a prediction 57497479   Sun Sep 29 2002 11:14 AM
. * * Re: Here's a prediction joepub1   Sun Sep 29 2002 09:43 AM
. * * Lili should be well behaved... I hope Can'tLogOnFrank   Sun Sep 29 2002 10:04 AM
. * * Re: Lili should be well behaved... I hope squirralee   Sun Sep 29 2002 06:09 PM
. * * Re: Lili should be well behaved... I hope CLOF   Sun Sep 29 2002 07:58 PM
. * * Re: Lili should be well behaved... I hope JustMe   Sun Sep 29 2002 08:40 PM
. * * Re: Lili should be well behaved... I hope CLOF   Sun Sep 29 2002 08:11 PM
. * * Re: Lili should be well behaved... I hope 57497479   Sun Sep 29 2002 08:31 PM
. * * Re: Lili should be well behaved... I hope CLOF   Sun Sep 29 2002 08:44 PM
. * * Re: Lili should be well behaved... I hope Mary K.   Sun Sep 29 2002 08:49 PM
. * * Bastardi going with TX/LA... Stevenotlogged   Sun Sep 29 2002 08:54 PM
. * * Re: Bastardi going with TX/LA... CLOF   Sun Sep 29 2002 09:02 PM
. * * Re: Bastardi going with TX/LA... Bill   Sun Sep 29 2002 09:13 PM
. * * Re: Bastardi going with TX/LA... HanKFranK   Sun Sep 29 2002 09:31 PM
. * * Not going to be a Texas Storm Frank P   Sun Sep 29 2002 11:21 PM
. * * This is rickinmobile, of course... Rickoshade   Sun Sep 29 2002 11:48 PM
. * * Lili White Lilith (she gonna take you through the tunnel of light)... Steve   Mon Sep 30 2002 12:52 AM
. * * She's almost there tom5r   Mon Sep 30 2002 07:34 AM
. * * GFDL latest run more west.... BUT Frank P   Mon Sep 30 2002 08:05 AM
. * * Re: GFDL latest run more west.... BUT Toni   Mon Sep 30 2002 09:24 AM
. * * Re: GFDL latest run more west.... BUT Steve H.   Mon Sep 30 2002 09:37 AM
. * * Re: GFDL latest run more west.... BUT Toni   Mon Sep 30 2002 10:40 AM
. * * philosophy HanKFranK   Mon Sep 30 2002 11:56 AM
. * * Re: philosophy jth   Mon Sep 30 2002 12:46 PM
. * * Pressure down 5 mb Frank P   Mon Sep 30 2002 09:56 AM
. * * Re: Pressure down 5 mb CFHCAdministrator   Mon Sep 30 2002 10:01 AM
. * * Eye forming??? Frank P   Mon Sep 30 2002 10:34 AM
. * * Re: Bastardi going with TX/LA... joepub1   Sun Sep 29 2002 10:13 PM
. * * Re: Bastardi going with TX/LA... JustMe   Sun Sep 29 2002 10:42 PM
. * * Re: Lili should be well behaved... I hope Bruce   Sun Sep 29 2002 10:39 AM
. * * Kyle coming back? Kevin   Sun Sep 29 2002 11:03 AM
. * * Re: Here's a prediction Kevin   Sun Sep 29 2002 09:54 AM
. * * Cancun Okane   Sun Sep 29 2002 09:41 AM
. * * She's up, she's down! tom5r   Sun Sep 29 2002 08:19 AM
. * * Re: Question Ricreig   Sat Sep 28 2002 09:43 PM
. * * Re: Question VolusiaMike   Sat Sep 28 2002 08:44 PM
. * * Re: Question joepub1   Sat Sep 28 2002 08:39 PM
. * * Re: Now to Kyle And Lili bobby   Fri Sep 27 2002 09:56 PM
. * * Re: Now to Kyle And Lili HanKFranK   Fri Sep 27 2002 10:19 PM
. * * Re: Now to Kyle And Lili tom5r   Fri Sep 27 2002 10:42 PM
. * * Re: Now to Kyle And Lili joepub1   Fri Sep 27 2002 11:37 PM
. * * Re: Now to Kyle And Lili Rasvar   Fri Sep 27 2002 11:52 PM
. * * Re: Now to Kyle And Lili Kevin   Fri Sep 27 2002 11:55 PM
. * * Re: Now to Kyle And Lili Okane   Sat Sep 28 2002 02:22 AM
. * * Re: Now to Kyle And Lili Harpar   Sat Sep 28 2002 08:25 AM
. * * where to send lili HanKFranK   Sat Sep 28 2002 02:56 AM
. * * all my chips were on Lili Domino   Sat Sep 28 2002 06:42 AM
. * * Re: Now to Kyle And Lili frank j p   Fri Sep 27 2002 11:48 PM
. * * Re: Now to Kyle And Lili Hurric   Fri Sep 27 2002 02:37 PM
. * * Server Downtime MikeCAdministrator   Fri Sep 27 2002 02:35 PM
. * * Re: Server Downtime Mike   Fri Sep 27 2002 02:52 PM
. * * TS Lili Bill   Fri Sep 27 2002 11:03 AM
. * * Re: TS Lili Rasvar   Fri Sep 27 2002 11:08 AM
. * * Kyle and Lili thoughts. Kevin   Fri Sep 27 2002 03:48 PM
. * * coments JT1016   Fri Sep 27 2002 04:41 PM
. * * Re: coments tom5r   Fri Sep 27 2002 04:49 PM
. * * plantation key/keys LoisCane   Fri Sep 27 2002 05:17 PM
. * * Re: plantation key/keys tom5r   Fri Sep 27 2002 05:25 PM
. * * Lili Southern   Fri Sep 27 2002 06:52 PM
. * * 8 PM Lili Kevin   Fri Sep 27 2002 08:30 PM
. * * Re: 8 PM Lili Justin in Miami   Fri Sep 27 2002 08:41 PM
. * * Re: 8 PM Lili Marktropic   Fri Sep 27 2002 08:52 PM
. * * Re: 8 PM Lili Kyle   Fri Sep 27 2002 09:26 PM
. * * Re: 8 PM Lili Grouper   Fri Sep 27 2002 09:48 PM
. * * Lili still reforming? joepub1   Fri Sep 27 2002 08:29 PM
. * * Re: coments Skeeter   Fri Sep 27 2002 04:48 PM
. * * Bastardi'sTake on Lili FlaRebel   Fri Sep 27 2002 08:02 AM
. * * Indeed looks like another Gulf system... Anonymous   Fri Sep 27 2002 08:13 AM
. * * Re: Indeed looks like another Gulf system... Rasvar   Fri Sep 27 2002 09:29 AM
. * * Re: Indeed looks like another Gulf system... zima   Fri Sep 27 2002 09:52 PM
. * * Re: Indeed looks like another Gulf system... Mike   Fri Sep 27 2002 09:43 AM
. * * Izzy had Cat 2 storm surge Anon Frank p   Fri Sep 27 2002 08:30 AM
. * * Kyle And Lili WXMAN RICHIE   Fri Sep 27 2002 05:22 AM
. * * Re: Kyle And Lili Rasvar   Fri Sep 27 2002 06:49 AM

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