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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas
      Mon Sep 12 2005 09:06 PM

Wednesday- 1:30PM Update
Ophelia is moving slowly north northeast this morning near the Carolina coast, parts of the northern eyewall are along the coast and it has slowly strengthened this morning.



CFHC Recording ongoing of Wilmington, NC Radar

Also a wave in the Atlantic east of the Islands, called 95L is worth being tracked as it has about a 3/10 chance to become a depression over the next two days.

Tuesday - 6:30PM Update
Ophelia has again attained hurricane status, now with winds of 75mph, with some slight additional strengthening possible before it makes landfall late Wednesday or early Thursday. The storm has begun to move toward the north, with a gradual acceleration and turn to the northeast likely over the course of the next few days. Stay tuned for future updates.

Tuesday - 10AM Update
Ophelia remains a strong Tropical Storm although latest recon noted that an eyewall structure was attempting to form. Convective banding has also improved and so has the outflow to the northeast.

At 13/14Z, Ophelia was located near 32.2N 78.1W - movement generally now to the northwest at 4 or 5mph. Movement should become more northerly by this evening. Minimal hurricane intensity is still possible - especially with the improved overall structure that is evident this morning. Continue to monitor NHC for the latest changes to watches and warnings.

Original Post
Ophelia has had a rough day - and, at least for the moment, thats good news for the folks along the Carolina coasts. At 13/00Z, now Tropical Storm Ophelia was located near 31.9N 77.6W, or just over 250 miles south southwest of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Movement is to the west northwest at 5mph - and with a strong ridge still in place to the north and a weakening ridge to the west, I'd expect that motion to continue. Clark's article (see below) covers the expected track, intensity and landfall threat areas.

Dry air entrainment (currently still ongoing primarily from the north) and sea surface cooling (upwelling) have weakened Ophelia and dissipated the entire central core of the storm. She is now a strong Tropical Storm with a low-level circulation center surrounded by strong outer convective bands and she is beginning to look somewhat like a subtropical system rather than a tropical one. The only tropical source of energy is the Gulfstream and Ophelia is cooling off a small area of that.

With such a large disruption in structure, I'd be surprised if she can make it back to hurricane status - although I'm beginning to believe that with this storm, surprises are the norm rather than the exception. While eventual landfall seems likely in the NC/SC border area, the long-term track is still a bit up in the dry air. Some of the models suggest that the approaching trough off to the northwest will not pick up Ophelia and carry her off to the northeast. It is still a possibility that the trough will only nudge the storm a little northeast and then east back over open water again - in other words we could be tracking this storm for quite some time (which sounds a bit redundant).

Folks along the North Carolina and South Carolina coasts are beginning to feel the effects of Ophelia's outer rainbands and should continue to monitor her movement and intensity closely.
ED

Clark's comments from the previous thread:
Ophelia reminds me a bit of Isidore from 2002, albeit for different reasons. Weakened storm that is still organized enough to be near hurricane intensity, but disrupted enough by external influences (here, upwelling and potentially dry air; heard a few debates on the topic today) to result in a storm with a relatively flat wind profile that, while moving into a more favorable environment, is not conducive to any quick development (if any at all). Expect the storm to come in near this intensity. I expect this storm to come in between Myrtle Beach and Wilmington sometime late tomorrow or on Wednesday -- a little further south of the NHC position is my guess -- before turning toward the north at a slow clip. Potential threat to the DelMarVa, Long Island, and New England is there, but other than high surf, gusty winds, and a couple-few inches of rain, it's nothing to write home about.

Wave out in the Cent. Atlantic bears some watching, but the upper-low in the same area needs to fill or move out before anything is to get going out there. There has been some model support for something and those waters are largely untouched this year -- in fact, the area east of 40W contains what are probably the least-disturbed waters this season outside of the SW Caribbean, though this is likely to form further west of there -- so it bears watching. Cape Verde season, which never really got going in earnest, is largely done with troughing taking over the tropical east Atlantic.

Waters remain anamolously cool in the Gulf and off of the SE coastline due to Katrina and Ophelia, respectively. It's still enough to get something going in the Gulf, but the threat for another big storm has been greatly diminished at least for the time being -- if not the entire season, as now is the time when air temperatures begin to fall and start to take the SSTs with them. Only 6 more storms gets us to the end of the list; with another one or two likely this month and the potential for a fairly active October, it's a fair bet that we make a run at the end of the list.


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Report conditions from Ophelia in your area In this thread


Event Related Links
Radars, Satellite

Charleston, SC Long Range Radar
Wilmington, NC Long Range Radar
Morehead City, NC Long Range Radar

Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms
Spaghetti Style model plots from Colorado State University

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations)
Charleston, SC

Emergency Management:
Georgia Emergency Management
South Carolina Emergency Management

Ophelia

Animated model plots of Ophelia
Google Map Plot of Ophelia
Floater IR Satellite of Ophelia
Floater WV Satellite of Ophelia
Floater Visible Satellite of Ophelia


Wave 95L



Edited by MikeC (Wed Sep 14 2005 01:30 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Ed DunhamAdministrator Mon Sep 12 2005 09:06 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Beaumont, TX   Wed Sep 14 2005 09:07 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Convergence   Tue Sep 13 2005 10:35 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Bloodstar   Wed Sep 14 2005 02:51 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Random Chaos   Wed Sep 14 2005 07:24 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Cycloneye11   Wed Sep 14 2005 07:43 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas zacros   Wed Sep 14 2005 08:05 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Ed in Va   Wed Sep 14 2005 08:19 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Random Chaos   Wed Sep 14 2005 08:29 AM
. * * New Invest Wingman51   Wed Sep 14 2005 08:54 AM
. * * Re: New Invest NewWatcher   Wed Sep 14 2005 09:09 AM
. * * Re: New Invest Ed in Va   Wed Sep 14 2005 09:14 AM
. * * Re: New Invest Ed in Va   Wed Sep 14 2005 10:52 AM
. * * Re: New Invest TheSkyGuy-in-OZ   Wed Sep 14 2005 11:46 AM
. * * Re: New Invest Beaumont, TX   Wed Sep 14 2005 12:03 PM
. * * Re: New Invest TheSkyGuy-in-OZ   Wed Sep 14 2005 12:12 PM
. * * Re: New Invest sailor   Wed Sep 14 2005 12:35 PM
. * * Re: New Invest Thunderbird12   Wed Sep 14 2005 01:20 PM
. * * Ophelia Thunderbird12   Wed Sep 14 2005 01:11 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 14 2005 01:31 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia HCW   Wed Sep 14 2005 01:43 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Rabbit   Wed Sep 14 2005 01:49 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Thunderbird12   Wed Sep 14 2005 01:55 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia ralphfl   Wed Sep 14 2005 01:58 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia scottsvb   Wed Sep 14 2005 02:13 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia The Force 2005   Wed Sep 14 2005 02:42 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia La Nimo   Wed Sep 14 2005 02:28 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Ed in Va   Wed Sep 14 2005 02:09 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Big Kahuna   Wed Sep 14 2005 02:19 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Thunderbird12   Wed Sep 14 2005 02:30 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia The Force 2005   Wed Sep 14 2005 02:41 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Ed in Va   Wed Sep 14 2005 02:48 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Thunderbird12   Wed Sep 14 2005 03:02 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Ed in Va   Wed Sep 14 2005 03:12 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Clark   Wed Sep 14 2005 07:15 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Beaumont, TX   Wed Sep 14 2005 08:35 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia CoalCracker   Wed Sep 14 2005 09:39 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Beaumont, TX   Wed Sep 14 2005 11:23 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Beaumont, TX   Wed Sep 14 2005 11:28 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Storm Hunter   Thu Sep 15 2005 01:32 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia syfr   Wed Sep 14 2005 07:31 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia scottsvb   Wed Sep 14 2005 03:18 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia ralphfl   Wed Sep 14 2005 04:27 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia scottsvb   Wed Sep 14 2005 09:52 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia scottsvb   Wed Sep 14 2005 09:55 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Ryan   Wed Sep 14 2005 10:50 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Daytonaman   Wed Sep 14 2005 08:50 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia bigpapi   Wed Sep 14 2005 11:09 PM
. * * a little more ophelia HanKFranK   Wed Sep 14 2005 09:29 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Random Chaos   Wed Sep 14 2005 09:16 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Random Chaos   Wed Sep 14 2005 05:42 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Thunderbird12   Wed Sep 14 2005 06:57 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia DebbiePSL   Wed Sep 14 2005 03:24 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia The Force 2005   Wed Sep 14 2005 02:57 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Ed in Va   Wed Sep 14 2005 03:01 PM
. * * Re: New Invest Todd   Wed Sep 14 2005 11:30 AM
. * * Re: New Invest TheSkyGuy-in-OZ   Wed Sep 14 2005 11:22 AM
. * * Re: 95L INVEST NONAME   Wed Sep 14 2005 01:19 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas bigpapi   Tue Sep 13 2005 08:48 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas zacros   Tue Sep 13 2005 06:38 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas bigpapi   Tue Sep 13 2005 07:52 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas zacros   Tue Sep 13 2005 08:08 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas bigpapi   Tue Sep 13 2005 08:19 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Random Chaos   Tue Sep 13 2005 08:35 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas bigpapi   Tue Sep 13 2005 09:09 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Clark   Tue Sep 13 2005 01:15 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Thunderbird12   Tue Sep 13 2005 03:14 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas bigpapi   Tue Sep 13 2005 03:21 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas rexsc   Tue Sep 13 2005 03:40 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas bigpapi   Tue Sep 13 2005 04:17 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Thunderbird12   Tue Sep 13 2005 05:37 PM
. * * Invest 95L Random Chaos   Tue Sep 13 2005 03:45 PM
. * * Re: Invest 95L amonty   Tue Sep 13 2005 05:58 PM
. * * Re: Invest 95L Beaumont, TX   Tue Sep 13 2005 08:27 PM
. * * Re: Invest 95L prideman   Tue Sep 13 2005 09:45 PM
. * * Re: Invest 95L Random Chaos   Tue Sep 13 2005 08:34 PM
. * * ophelia, 95L, and the guy in the middle HanKFranK   Tue Sep 13 2005 09:37 PM
. * * Re: ophelia, 95L, and the guy in the middle Ryan   Tue Sep 13 2005 09:46 PM
. * * Re: ophelia, 95L, and the guy in the middle Tazmanian93   Tue Sep 13 2005 09:50 PM
. * * Re: Invest 95L bn765   Tue Sep 13 2005 07:57 PM
. * * Re: Invest 95L Random Chaos   Tue Sep 13 2005 08:23 PM
. * * Re: Invest 95L CoalCracker   Tue Sep 13 2005 04:12 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Chris Bryant   Tue Sep 13 2005 03:33 PM
. * * Atlantic activity Thunderbird12   Tue Sep 13 2005 03:29 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas WisconsinWill   Tue Sep 13 2005 09:28 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas B.C.Francis   Tue Sep 13 2005 10:36 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Thunderbird12   Tue Sep 13 2005 11:40 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Random Chaos   Tue Sep 13 2005 12:01 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas HanKFranK   Tue Sep 13 2005 01:08 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Old Sailor   Mon Sep 12 2005 09:58 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Old Sailor   Mon Sep 12 2005 09:47 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Random Chaos   Mon Sep 12 2005 09:16 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Sep 12 2005 10:04 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Random Chaos   Mon Sep 12 2005 10:12 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas J.C.   Mon Sep 12 2005 10:58 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Clark   Tue Sep 13 2005 12:34 AM
. * * ophelia creeping along HanKFranK   Tue Sep 13 2005 02:08 AM
. * * Re: ophelia creeping along WisconsinWill   Tue Sep 13 2005 07:56 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas CarolinaGurl   Mon Sep 12 2005 10:56 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas *DELETED* noooo   Mon Sep 12 2005 09:31 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas prideman   Mon Sep 12 2005 09:41 PM

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