Guess I'll go out on a limb tonight and rule out Tx as IMO Lili will not be a Texas storm... one reason .... climatology.... good enough reason for this time of the year... could be wrong and I'll grill up some crow if need be... but the most west this thing could go would be central LA.... if so, would have little if any effect on TX...
I still think the area around NO is prime... 75 miles either side... so I have right now a 150 mile target zone...Lili on that predicted wnw track tonight.. so models working OK so far...
Bill was right in his earlier post as the models have consistently shifted somewhat to the east, esp 98A... you really don't expect a big Bermuda ridge to develop this late in the season and be able to push a storm all the way to Texas... but anything possible ...
My probabilities as of tonight..E TX 10%, TX/LA line 20%, Cental LA 35%, SE LA 40%, MS coast 35%, Al coast 30%, Fl panhandle 25%....
Frank P... was able to log on as I cranked up the old backup puter tonight... newer model causing me some problems...
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