4 days out notes on Lili. The key with her is forward movement and speed. I think it's fairly cut and dry that the faster she moves, the more west her eventual landfall. I think the TPC's got it about right, but maybe a little fast. I like my MS solution for this year. I've personally seen rain from 4 or 5 storms to season-to-date due to 3 LA landfalls (plus remant Ed and bands from Fay). And while I'd love to call for a Bay St. Louis landfall for consistency sake, I think the landfall area is somewhere between 20 miles south of Gavleston Island to about Buras/Mouth of the MS R. Using that range, I'd call for a LA Landfall in the Ibera/St. Mary Parish area of LA (New Iberia/Morgan City) pm Thursday or am Friday. Under this scenario N.O. to MS/ALline probably see TS conditions and more flooding.
Confidence in this forecast is fairly low based on timing and strength of the ridge over the SE US. If it's a Friday day landfall, threat shifts to Houma-Mobile. Late Friday early Saturday argues for a Mobile - St. George landfall. This is all based on the idea that at some point she's got to make a northerly turn. This is typical for October Gulf storms (but hardly a rule in and of itself). I'll be watching this one with keen interest. Impact on the city is fresh in my mind from Isidore. The only thing we didn't get were winds.
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