Quote: Dr Lyons just had a good discussion. The storm will turn north, that is inevitable. But it is relative to the forward speed. Basically, the faster it moves, the farther west it goes, the slower, the farther east. The storm is not turning, it is wobbling. But wobbles slow down forward speed, and thus can shift the track slightly east. It has a way to go.
He's right, but I don't see any slowdown in the forward motion. The earlier wobble to the north has smoothed out and it's back on basically a due west track just slightly north of the forecast (north of the forecast due to the earlier wobble). It does appear to have a bit of an arm to the north on IR right now but that's 1) probably temporary, and 2) probably a sign that the wind field is once again expanding, not that the storm is turning.
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 30168
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center