it's not viewed as reliable...can't say why though...usually the outlier...but on it's 3rd or 4th run it nailed Kats path.Why it & some others end up so far off later I don't know.
I look for weird patterns with the models...they usually come in line closer to landfall...1st few runs are usually all over the place ya know? But I've noticed some of those early runs...especially from what's viewed as the less reliable ones...actually end up right on target.
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