Oh God. AP04 puts this thing on top of BILOXI at the end of the run!?!? All of the models turn it eastward after landfall (or southeast)??? What are AN03 and AP04? Those seem to be the most ominous, taking the thing into Louisiana and then back down into the GOM near N.O. and Biloxi, respectively. Literally, that's unbelievable.
It's only one model run, though. If it continues I'll be panicky in the morning...
Some background on ensemble modelling...what you are seeing is the same model (the GFS) run several times with slightly different initial data (or perturbations)...AP is a positve perturbation, while AN is an negative one...the higher the number, the more extreme the change from what the observed initial data was. The fact that some of the runs go east is not surprising, in fact it SHOULD happen that way. As with all modelling for hurricanes, don't pick one of those lines and ride it...watch the trend for all of them!
In a related matter, in the 10pm (EDT) Conference Call, NHC said they are shifting the track closer to Galveston in the 11pm package.
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