Yes, that is a track shift slighly more east/north. I didn't hear what the intensity would be, but we will find out in a few minutes anyway. We are due for a vortex...overdue in fact...I am not sure if there has been an equipment problem in the recon aircraft (which has happened a lot with this storm) or if the latest recons are being "held" until the advisory comes out...(oh, I forgot...NHC promised they didn't do that...LOL).
It seems like they put the advisories out five minutes BEFORE the recon this season - which has always baffled me - why not schedule the recon flights to arrive so that they have the info in time to put it in the new advisory and have the advisory issued on time?
Looking at the IR... I'm not sure I want to see the recon anyway. Why has there been so much aircraft trouble with Rita anyway? Just a wicked coincidence?
Well while I typed this the advisory was issued. Looking at the Forecast portion winds are now 150 kts, which is up to about 172 mph by my math.
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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