Argh - miscontrued.. As far as the "snap shot" statement, I apologize if that some how insinuated anything to you.. In fact, I was merely stating it as a means to agree with me, as in: "people" shouldn't do that. And, yes, in general terms.
As far as specifically regarding models, I was speaking in terms of the operational models: GFS, ECM, NOGAPS, GGEM, UKMET and the only barotropic model that avails to me, the GFDL, which is actually parameterized off the GFS initialization.
Granted, I did not factor in the ensemble clusters of the respective camps.
I believe if you spoke with just about anyone in the field that studies the models daily, weather for professionally or novice, they would concur that there was a left track bias in everyone of these listed above, up until almost the day before Katrina finally came onto shore.
As far as the governing synoptics are concern. There has been a "generalized" l/w axis situated near 120W and a well teleconnected flat ridge over central plains that occasionally bulges N and ENEwards in coverage. This pattern orientation is one that has quite frankly prevailed most of the summer and still, is way place up here in the NE are having some unusually warm days so late in the year. Anyway, not to digress...point being, the "generalized" guidance must answer to these global based influencers... Details come down to mesoscale events, storm relative indices of all different kinds, etc.. Fact of the matter is, I really only meant to comment on the fact that since the pattern at large is predominantly one way, it is reasonable - albeit risky - to assume that these hurricanes coming into that arena may behave similarly.
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