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Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 211 (Idalia) , Major: 211 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 211 (Idalia) Major: 211 (Idalia)
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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
watching down the road
      Tue Sep 27 2005 01:45 AM

a few things worth watching, all of which will take a couple to few days to do anything... but definite signs of life in the models right now. quick rundown from west to east:
north gulf: a vorticity lobe peeled off of rita and has descended into the gulf. it's non-tropical and elongated and northerly-sheared, and has little model support.. but a few of the globals are watching it for the next couple of days... showing it as quasi-stationary. i'm not as certain that it will completely go away as some are showing, but am assuming the no-development idea is right because not a single model has any interest in it.
central caribbean: wave/low 99L is still undergoing some easterly shear. there are a good number of upper lows running around the basin, and this one is still tangling with them. model consensus is that it moves wnw-nw and becomes more defined later in the week in the nw caribbean. from there some show it moving over the yucatan and into the western gulf. potential threat if it develops.
central atlantic: the philippe eater. currently an extratropical low east of bermuda that's peeled back off the front it earlier merged with. it's been devoid of convection until some suddenly blew up at the center this evening. doesn't mean much.. yet. if that persists it'll transition into something. if it isn't generating gales right now it's dang close. shoul;d it develop it'll just get yanked out when the next trough comes by.
45 wave: sheared, broad, plodding west. several reliable globals show it moving wnw on a recurvature-type track this week, then getting blocked and turning west towards the u.s. over the weekend as a strong ridge develops over the western atlantic and eastern u.s. next week. it has to survive this week and miss the first trough connection... but a potential threat if it makes it through... to the southeast coast.
gfs shows waves behind perking up but common sense says they won't do anything this late in the year in the far eastern atlantic.
none of those four areas is imminent to do anything.... but at least one and quite possibly two should develop over the next week to ten days.
HF 0545z27september

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Watching the Caribbean MikeCAdministrator Tue Sep 27 2005 01:45 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Caribbean Beaumont, TX   Wed Sep 28 2005 09:05 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Caribbean Beaumont, TX   Wed Sep 28 2005 12:03 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Caribbean Margie   Wed Sep 28 2005 01:09 PM
. * * Katrina's surge... Frank P   Wed Sep 28 2005 07:38 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Caribbean MapMaster   Wed Sep 28 2005 04:48 PM
. * * Waveland danielwAdministrator   Wed Sep 28 2005 08:52 PM
. * * Re: Waveland MapMaster   Wed Sep 28 2005 09:46 PM
. * * Re: Waveland Margie   Thu Sep 29 2005 12:59 AM
. * * Waveland K-Mart Photo TheElNino   Wed Sep 28 2005 09:54 PM
. * * Re: Waveland K-Mart Photo Margie   Wed Sep 28 2005 11:02 PM
. * * Re: Waveland MapMaster   Wed Sep 28 2005 09:29 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Caribbean Thunderbird12   Wed Sep 28 2005 05:30 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Caribbean Rich B   Wed Sep 28 2005 05:48 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Caribbean zmdz01   Wed Sep 28 2005 05:49 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Caribbean typhoon_tip   Wed Sep 28 2005 07:29 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Caribbean SMOKE   Wed Sep 28 2005 07:44 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Caribbean Thunderbird12   Wed Sep 28 2005 06:37 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Caribbean typhoon_tip   Wed Sep 28 2005 07:18 PM
. * * rita jr, 99L, and the precursor HanKFranK   Wed Sep 28 2005 07:51 PM
. * * Re: rita jr, 99L, and the precursor SC Bill   Wed Sep 28 2005 09:17 PM
. * * Re: rita jr, 99L, and the precursor Ryan   Wed Sep 28 2005 09:29 PM
. * * Re: rita jr, 99L, and the precursor typhoon_tip   Wed Sep 28 2005 11:17 PM
. * * Re: rita jr, 99L, and the precursor Ryan   Thu Sep 29 2005 04:06 PM
. * * TD15--EPAC Ryan   Wed Sep 28 2005 06:49 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Caribbean Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 28 2005 03:52 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Caribbean MapMaster   Wed Sep 28 2005 04:46 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Caribbean LisaMaria65   Wed Sep 28 2005 12:43 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Caribbean Lee-Delray   Wed Sep 28 2005 12:21 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Caribbean GEScott71   Wed Sep 28 2005 10:41 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Caribbean Ed in Va   Wed Sep 28 2005 09:41 AM
. * * Tropical System Off of Central Florida Next Week TheElNino   Tue Sep 27 2005 10:41 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Caribbean stevie   Mon Sep 26 2005 08:11 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Caribbean Ryan   Mon Sep 26 2005 10:51 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Caribbean Margie   Mon Sep 26 2005 11:47 PM
. * * watching down the road HanKFranK   Tue Sep 27 2005 01:45 AM
. * * Re: watching down the road Margie   Tue Sep 27 2005 09:04 AM
. * * Re: watching down the road Random Chaos   Tue Sep 27 2005 09:43 AM
. * * Re: watching down the road ftlaudbob   Tue Sep 27 2005 09:55 AM
. * * Re: watching down the road Ed in Va   Tue Sep 27 2005 10:35 AM
. * * Re: watching down the road Thunderbird12   Tue Sep 27 2005 11:19 AM
. * * Re: watching down the road doug   Tue Sep 27 2005 12:31 PM
. * * Re: watching down the road Margie   Tue Sep 27 2005 12:22 PM
. * * Re: watching down the road javlin   Tue Sep 27 2005 01:08 PM
. * * Re: watching down the road HanKFranK   Tue Sep 27 2005 01:50 PM
. * * Re: watching down the road Thunderbird12   Tue Sep 27 2005 02:32 PM
. * * Re: watching down the road doug   Tue Sep 27 2005 03:04 PM
. * * Re: watching down the road Random Chaos   Tue Sep 27 2005 03:15 PM
. * * Re: watching down the road SirCane   Tue Sep 27 2005 03:36 PM
. * * Re: watching down the road doug   Tue Sep 27 2005 04:04 PM
. * * Re: watching down the road ParrishNStPeteFL   Tue Sep 27 2005 04:41 PM
. * * Re: watching down the road satellite steve   Tue Sep 27 2005 05:17 PM
. * * Re: watching down the road Thunderbird12   Tue Sep 27 2005 05:31 PM
. * * Re: watching down the road Margie   Tue Sep 27 2005 06:14 PM
. * * Re: watching down the road oil trader   Tue Sep 27 2005 06:53 PM
. * * Re: watching down the road GuppieGrouper   Tue Sep 27 2005 07:00 PM
. * * Re: watching down the road Reaper   Tue Sep 27 2005 07:28 PM
. * * Re: watching down the road Thunderbird12   Tue Sep 27 2005 09:36 PM
. * * all day in miami they said tomorrow conditions would be favorable LoisCane   Tue Sep 27 2005 10:30 PM
. * * Re: all day in miami they said tomorrow conditions would be favorable Thunderbird12   Tue Sep 27 2005 10:46 PM
. * * no rush HanKFranK   Tue Sep 27 2005 11:34 PM
. * * Re: no rush Beaumont, TX   Wed Sep 28 2005 11:53 AM
. * * Re: no rush Thunderbird12   Wed Sep 28 2005 11:24 AM
. * * Re: no rush Ed in Va   Wed Sep 28 2005 11:40 AM
. * * Re: watching down the road Hugh   Tue Sep 27 2005 08:17 PM
. * * Re: watching down the road GuppieGrouper   Tue Sep 27 2005 07:50 PM
. * * Re: watching down the road Reaper   Tue Sep 27 2005 08:15 PM
. * * Re: watching down the road Convergence   Tue Sep 27 2005 06:22 PM
. * * Re: watching down the road satellite steve   Tue Sep 27 2005 05:59 PM
. * * Re: watching down the road Random Chaos   Tue Sep 27 2005 04:03 PM
. * * Re: watching down the road Thunderbird12   Tue Sep 27 2005 03:35 PM
. * * Re: watching down the road Margie   Tue Sep 27 2005 04:23 PM
. * * Re: watching down the road CoalCracker   Tue Sep 27 2005 04:47 PM
. * * Re: watching down the road Hootowl   Tue Sep 27 2005 06:22 PM
. * * Re: watching down the road CoalCracker   Tue Sep 27 2005 08:54 PM
. * * Re: watching down the road Allison   Tue Sep 27 2005 08:17 PM
. * * Re: watching down the road StormHound   Tue Sep 27 2005 08:31 PM
. * * Re: watching down the road javlin   Tue Sep 27 2005 06:45 PM
. * * Re: watching down the road Reaper   Tue Sep 27 2005 03:08 PM
. * * Re: watching down the road essan   Wed Sep 28 2005 08:45 PM
. * * Re: watching down the road Random Chaos   Tue Sep 27 2005 02:31 PM
. * * Re: watching down the road lennox   Tue Sep 27 2005 12:44 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Caribbean Storm Cooper   Mon Sep 26 2005 07:23 PM

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