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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
TS Stan and Other Basin Activity
      Sun Oct 02 2005 07:59 AM

2AM Tuesday Update
Stan is rapidly intensifying this evening, not entirely unexpected given the favorable conditions aloft and in the Bay of Campeche, the organization of the storm, and the high probability of rapid intensification predicted by the SHIPS model. Stan is now forecast to make landfall in about 36hr as a 105mph category 2 hurricane. More in the morning.

9AM Monday 3.October.2005
The wave near the Bahamas (92L) is being watched for future development. More to come tonight on this.

From Ed Dunham:

A tropical wave is interacting with a trough of low pressure to the east of the Bahamas and the system is slowly becoming better organized as it drifts westward.

Wind shear to the north of the system is forecast to slowly relax by Tuesday evening and allow for some additional development of this large area of showers and thunderstorms. Although still not a sure thing, it is possible that
this area will develop into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning.

Movement should be to the west and eventually northwest toward Florida. Even if the system does not fully develop, almost all of the Florida peninsula can expect a prolonged period of showers - some of them heavy - and gusty winds for the rest of the week. Shower activity should increase Tuesday evening through Friday and total rainfall could be significant before this period of unsettled weather finally ends.

At 29C, sea surface temperatures are still warm enough to support tropical cyclone development - the next name on the list for this busy season is Tammy. The last year to reach this high into the alphabet was 1995, with Hurricane Tanya. The 1995 storm, Tanya formed in late October.

Original Update
Early this Sunday morning TD 20 was upgraded to Tropical Storm Stan - the eighteenth named storm of this highly active Atlantic season. Stan was upgraded just before he made landfall south of Tulum on the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico and he is now moving westward across the Yucatan - and he has probably weakened to a Tropical Depression at this time.

Stan is expexted to continue westward across the Yucatan and emerge into the Bay of Campeche by Monday Morning. Movement should continue to the west and eventually west southwest with landfall along the east central Mexican coast. Current projections intensify the storm to hurricane strength prior to landfall, however, modest wind shear exists across the Yucatan and the southern Gulf of Mexico so attaining hurricane strength is still questionable.

Stan


Tropical Depression 19 in the far eastern Atlantic west of the Cape Verde Islands continues to move slowly northward into increasing westerly shear. There is a small chance that this system could attain tropical storm strength before it weakens and dissipates in a few days - but its a very small chance since the wind shear to the north of the system is quite strong.


An area of gathering convection has flared up along a trough axis near 24.5N 70W as a tropical wave interacts with a stationary upper level low northeast of the southern Bahamas. The convection is currently parked in an area of light shear, so some slow development is possible over the next few days.

A tropical low near 12N 42W at 02/12Z is moving to the west northwest with convection displaced to the south. Because of a somewhat hostile upper air environment, development of this area, if any, will be slow.

If you use the MJO for guidance, the entire basin is about to settle into a quieter period for the next two or three weeks. I'd expect another final effort at activity from about 20 October through 10 November - perhaps another one or two storms before this hectic season comes to a much welcomed close.
ED


TS Stan

Animated model plot of TS Stan

92L


Edited by Clark (Tue Oct 04 2005 02:15 AM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* TS Stan and Other Basin Activity Ed DunhamAdministrator Sun Oct 02 2005 07:59 AM
. * * Re: Katrina Aftermath - even rebar Sheeper   Mon Oct 03 2005 05:03 PM
. * * Re: Katrina Aftermath - even rebar Margie   Mon Oct 03 2005 05:20 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity hurricane expert   Mon Oct 03 2005 11:53 AM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity Margie   Mon Oct 03 2005 12:22 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity Thunderbird12   Mon Oct 03 2005 01:21 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity oil trader   Mon Oct 03 2005 04:28 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity emackl   Mon Oct 03 2005 01:35 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity Ed in Va   Mon Oct 03 2005 01:51 PM
. * * Turning just north of PR? Bloodstar   Mon Oct 03 2005 01:53 PM
. * * Stan Thunderbird12   Mon Oct 03 2005 02:32 PM
. * * Re: gfs? Big Kahuna   Mon Oct 03 2005 02:54 PM
. * * Models and other things Bloodstar   Mon Oct 03 2005 03:08 PM
. * * Re: Models and other things NewWatcher   Mon Oct 03 2005 03:24 PM
. * * Re: Models and other things emackl   Mon Oct 03 2005 03:28 PM
. * * Re: Models and other things Thunderbird12   Mon Oct 03 2005 03:42 PM
. * * Stan Thunderbird12   Mon Oct 03 2005 04:11 PM
. * * Re: Stan dave foster   Mon Oct 03 2005 07:51 PM
. * * Re: Stan Rubén   Mon Oct 03 2005 08:22 PM
. * * Re: Stan dave foster   Mon Oct 03 2005 09:13 PM
. * * Re: Stan Random Chaos   Mon Oct 03 2005 10:19 PM
. * * Re: Stan HanKFranK   Mon Oct 03 2005 11:11 PM
. * * Re: Stan Hurricane Fredrick 1979   Tue Oct 04 2005 01:31 AM
. * * latest adv. on stan HanKFranK   Tue Oct 04 2005 02:41 AM
. * * Re: latest adv. on stan meranto   Tue Oct 04 2005 04:38 AM
. * * GFS Ryan   Mon Oct 03 2005 08:54 PM
. * * Re: Stan bobbutts   Mon Oct 03 2005 08:17 PM
. * * Re: Stan Genesis   Mon Oct 03 2005 08:55 PM
. * * Re: Stan Margie   Mon Oct 03 2005 04:45 PM
. * * Re: Models and other things Bloodstar   Mon Oct 03 2005 03:37 PM
. * * Re: Models and other things NewWatcher   Mon Oct 03 2005 03:30 PM
. * * Re: Models and other things Big Kahuna   Mon Oct 03 2005 03:40 PM
. * * Re: Models and other things Hootowl   Mon Oct 03 2005 07:10 PM
. * * Re: gfs? Ryan   Mon Oct 03 2005 03:03 PM
. * * Re: 92L a TD? MapMaster   Mon Oct 03 2005 12:03 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity Storm Hunter   Mon Oct 03 2005 01:26 AM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity twizted sizter   Mon Oct 03 2005 09:50 AM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity Storm Hunter   Mon Oct 03 2005 01:39 AM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity Storm Hunter   Mon Oct 03 2005 02:15 AM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity emackl   Mon Oct 03 2005 08:00 AM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity Ron Basso   Mon Oct 03 2005 09:26 AM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity Margie   Mon Oct 03 2005 09:55 AM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity NewWatcher   Mon Oct 03 2005 09:57 AM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity emackl   Mon Oct 03 2005 09:47 AM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity Susan in Jupiter, FL   Mon Oct 03 2005 09:51 AM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity emackl   Mon Oct 03 2005 10:00 AM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity NewWatcher   Mon Oct 03 2005 10:04 AM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity ParrishNStPeteFL   Mon Oct 03 2005 04:27 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity sara33   Mon Oct 03 2005 04:34 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity Brad in Miami   Mon Oct 03 2005 04:47 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity sara33   Mon Oct 03 2005 04:50 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity Storm Hunter   Mon Oct 03 2005 05:18 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity Clark   Mon Oct 03 2005 05:39 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity crpeavley   Mon Oct 03 2005 07:19 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity crpeavley   Mon Oct 03 2005 07:02 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity D3m3NT3DVoRT3X   Mon Oct 03 2005 04:38 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity sara33   Mon Oct 03 2005 10:26 AM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity NewWatcher   Mon Oct 03 2005 10:30 AM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity sara33   Mon Oct 03 2005 10:37 AM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity NewWatcher   Mon Oct 03 2005 10:49 AM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity emackl   Mon Oct 03 2005 11:27 AM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity MapMaster   Mon Oct 03 2005 12:05 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity emackl   Mon Oct 03 2005 12:25 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity scottsvb   Mon Oct 03 2005 12:29 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity Margie   Mon Oct 03 2005 12:46 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity MapMaster   Mon Oct 03 2005 12:52 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity HanKFranK   Mon Oct 03 2005 01:11 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity Hootowl   Mon Oct 03 2005 12:34 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity scottsvb   Mon Oct 03 2005 12:38 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity scottsvb   Mon Oct 03 2005 12:45 PM
. * * Navy website zmdz01   Mon Oct 03 2005 12:32 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity Rabbit   Mon Oct 03 2005 11:47 AM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity emackl   Mon Oct 03 2005 11:51 AM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity Rabbit   Mon Oct 03 2005 10:54 AM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity Thunderbird12   Mon Oct 03 2005 11:25 AM
. * * Bahama Baby Wingman51   Mon Oct 03 2005 11:16 AM
. * * 70W 25N Beach   Mon Oct 03 2005 08:05 AM
. * * Re: 70W 25N NewWatcher   Mon Oct 03 2005 08:29 AM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity Magic Hat   Sun Oct 02 2005 02:47 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity Margie   Sun Oct 02 2005 09:58 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity Ryan   Sun Oct 02 2005 10:27 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity Big Red Machine   Mon Oct 03 2005 01:07 AM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity Beaumont, TX   Sun Oct 02 2005 12:07 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity Wxwatcher2   Sun Oct 02 2005 08:10 AM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity Cindi   Sun Oct 02 2005 08:23 AM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity dkpcb   Sun Oct 02 2005 11:56 AM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity HanKFranK   Sun Oct 02 2005 10:53 AM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity typhoon_tip   Sun Oct 02 2005 12:16 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity jmk818   Sun Oct 02 2005 01:46 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity Beaumont, TX   Sun Oct 02 2005 12:13 PM

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