somewhere between the florida straits and near puerto rico something ought to spin up over the next day or two. who knows, could be a little north of that line. once something gets going it'll probably move towards or over florida, then up the east coast. i'm guessing that the thing following stan into the gulf is a separate entity that will meander around like the models suggest. stan itself is nudging sw across the BoC and should go inland some time on wednesday--probably as a minimal hurricane. it's too close to land to really spin up i'm thinking, though it could end up being surprisingly strong. in the medium to long range whatever is left in the gulf may move across florida and off the east coast.. and modeling suggests that more will try to brew up in the nw caribbean/yucatan region going into mid month. i'm discounting the stuff showing in the eastern atlantic as that region hasn't shown much proclivity to spawn things this year (aside from a doomed depression and some early medium-trackers). with stan going in to the western bay of campeche coastline, that's the fourth system to hit that region this year. granted the other three were tropical storms, but that's still quite a concentration of hits. HF 0311z04october
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