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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Severe Weather Possible
      Wed Oct 05 2005 08:37 AM

Quote:

Well, yeah, giving them grief over this, considering how they botched Katrina, is pretty thin soup. Not likely this one will kill a lot of people.

Last night I guaranteed it would be a tropical storm today, if not a hurricane. Unless it heads inland, it will be a hurricane by 5pm. Really ramping up in the last hour.

Last night, the NHC didn't know if it was worth sending out an airplane.

It's easy making an accurate prediction about strength. Just add two levels to whatever the NHC predicts.



Let me point something out: NHC does not predict Cat 4 and 5 generally. Why? Becuase the SHIPS model is a statistical model based from a decade long survey, and there were so few Cat 4 and 5 storms during that time that, simply speaking, they don't know what makes a system go from Cat 3 to Cat 4 or Cat 4 to Cat 5, or retain Cat 5 strength. Generally, if you see any prediction of Cat 3 or Cat 4 from NHC, you should immediately say "It's a major hurricane that could be anything from Cat 3 through Cat 5, depending on exact conditions."

GFDL model does a better job predicting strong storms, but it isn't consistant - one run makes a TS a Cat 5 in 24 hours and the next run dissipates it. How can you make an educated guess as to what a system is going to do when the models are so erratic?

The time averaged GFDL intensity is generally about the same as the SHIPS intensity, and both poorly predict anything over Category 3 or weak Category 4 storms.

You can't blame the NHC - they only work with the best models out there. Storms have always had a mind of their own - the intensity is purely a guess. Ever taken a look at the intensity charts NHC puts out? You'll notice that most systems that reach Cat 2 have a chance of hitting the Cat 4+ range, though generally fairly low. It's just like track: don't just follow the centerline.

--RC

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Bahamas Tropical Wave and Tropical Depression Stan MikeCAdministrator Wed Oct 05 2005 08:37 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave Clark   Wed Oct 05 2005 12:37 AM
. * * 92L maintains and Stan moves toward the E. Pacific danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 05 2005 06:00 AM
. * * Looks Like We Might Have Tammy recmod   Wed Oct 05 2005 05:44 AM
. * * Re: Looks Like We Might Have Tammy Hugh   Wed Oct 05 2005 06:32 AM
. * * Re: Looks Like We Might Have Tammy Wxwatcher2   Wed Oct 05 2005 05:52 AM
. * * Severe Weather Possible danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 05 2005 06:34 AM
. * * Re: Severe Weather Possible amonty   Wed Oct 05 2005 06:54 AM
. * * Re: Severe Weather Possible Hugh   Wed Oct 05 2005 06:56 AM
. * * Re: Severe Weather Possible amonty   Wed Oct 05 2005 07:02 AM
. * * Re: Severe Weather Possible amonty   Wed Oct 05 2005 07:01 AM
. * * Re: Severe Weather Possible Hugh   Wed Oct 05 2005 07:04 AM
. * * Re: Severe Weather Possible Brown Brown   Wed Oct 05 2005 07:21 AM
. * * Re: Severe Weather Possible jlauderdal   Wed Oct 05 2005 07:25 AM
. * * Re: Severe Weather Possible Brown Brown   Wed Oct 05 2005 07:30 AM
. * * Re: Severe Weather Possible Wxwatcher2   Wed Oct 05 2005 08:09 AM
. * * Re: Severe Weather Possible Brown Brown   Wed Oct 05 2005 08:18 AM
. * * Re: Severe Weather Possible Random Chaos   Wed Oct 05 2005 08:37 AM
. * * Re: Severe Weather Possible Margie   Wed Oct 05 2005 09:03 AM
. * * Re: Severe Weather Possible Brown Brown   Wed Oct 05 2005 08:20 AM
. * * Re: Severe Weather Possible Ed in Va   Wed Oct 05 2005 08:23 AM
. * * Re: Severe Weather Possible Hugh   Wed Oct 05 2005 07:54 AM
. * * Re: Severe Weather Possible Brown Brown   Wed Oct 05 2005 08:02 AM
. * * Re: Severe Weather Possible craigm   Wed Oct 05 2005 08:15 AM
. * * Re: Severe Weather Possible OrlandoDan   Wed Oct 05 2005 07:29 AM
. * * Re: Severe Weather Possible Beach   Wed Oct 05 2005 07:33 AM
. * * Re: Severe Weather Possible Lsr1166   Wed Oct 05 2005 07:38 AM
. * * Re: Severe Weather Possible emackl   Wed Oct 05 2005 07:15 AM
. * * Re: Severe Weather Possible craigm   Wed Oct 05 2005 07:42 AM
. * * Re: Severe Weather Possible Hootowl   Wed Oct 05 2005 06:54 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave Beaumont, TX   Tue Oct 04 2005 04:46 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave Ed in Va   Tue Oct 04 2005 04:58 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave hurricane expert   Tue Oct 04 2005 02:16 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave Wxwatcher2   Tue Oct 04 2005 09:53 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave Margie   Tue Oct 04 2005 10:08 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave HanKFranK   Tue Oct 04 2005 10:29 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave dave foster   Tue Oct 04 2005 12:19 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave dave foster   Tue Oct 04 2005 09:40 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave Margie   Tue Oct 04 2005 10:50 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave Thunderbird12   Tue Oct 04 2005 11:30 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave Storm Hunter   Tue Oct 04 2005 10:37 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave Thunderbird12   Tue Oct 04 2005 10:48 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up Tropics Guy   Tue Oct 04 2005 12:54 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up Steve H1   Tue Oct 04 2005 01:02 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up HanKFranK   Tue Oct 04 2005 01:20 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up scottsvb   Tue Oct 04 2005 01:30 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up ralphfl   Tue Oct 04 2005 02:25 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up scottsvb   Tue Oct 04 2005 03:09 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up Random Chaos   Tue Oct 04 2005 03:11 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up scottsvb   Tue Oct 04 2005 03:19 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up emackl   Tue Oct 04 2005 03:22 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up Big Kahuna   Tue Oct 04 2005 04:09 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up Thunderbird12   Tue Oct 04 2005 04:25 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up emackl   Tue Oct 04 2005 05:03 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up Storm Hunter   Tue Oct 04 2005 05:11 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up Hootowl   Tue Oct 04 2005 05:58 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up Margie   Tue Oct 04 2005 06:18 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up Hootowl   Tue Oct 04 2005 07:21 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up danielwAdministrator   Tue Oct 04 2005 07:32 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up Margie   Tue Oct 04 2005 08:22 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up Brown Brown   Tue Oct 04 2005 11:08 PM
. * * WS ETA CoalCracker   Tue Oct 04 2005 08:10 PM
. * * 8pm obs HanKFranK   Tue Oct 04 2005 08:24 PM
. * * Re: 8pm obs emackl   Tue Oct 04 2005 09:10 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up Hurricane Fredrick 1979   Tue Oct 04 2005 06:34 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up Thunderbird12   Tue Oct 04 2005 05:34 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up sara33   Tue Oct 04 2005 07:03 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up Hurricane Fredrick 1979   Tue Oct 04 2005 07:28 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up sara33   Tue Oct 04 2005 07:42 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up jusforsean   Tue Oct 04 2005 08:18 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up emackl   Tue Oct 04 2005 05:57 PM
. * * latest TWO Thunderbird12   Tue Oct 04 2005 05:20 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Margie   Tue Oct 04 2005 05:37 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up HURRICANELONNY   Tue Oct 04 2005 04:16 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up Thunderbird12   Tue Oct 04 2005 04:04 PM
. * * The odd chance event Bloodstar   Tue Oct 04 2005 03:07 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up Clark   Tue Oct 04 2005 01:47 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up Thunderbird12   Tue Oct 04 2005 03:09 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up sara33   Tue Oct 04 2005 01:28 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up scottsvb   Tue Oct 04 2005 01:17 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave Tazmanian93   Tue Oct 04 2005 12:12 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave Margie   Tue Oct 04 2005 11:38 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave Ed in Va   Tue Oct 04 2005 10:17 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave emackl   Tue Oct 04 2005 10:24 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave Margie   Tue Oct 04 2005 08:00 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave Katie   Tue Oct 04 2005 08:44 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave emackl   Tue Oct 04 2005 09:07 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave Scrappy   Tue Oct 04 2005 09:06 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave Lee-Delray   Tue Oct 04 2005 09:05 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave tpratch   Tue Oct 04 2005 09:09 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave Katie   Tue Oct 04 2005 10:59 AM
. * * Katrina zmdz01   Tue Oct 04 2005 11:35 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave emackl   Tue Oct 04 2005 09:23 AM

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