tammy--going inland near jacksonville/brunswick. might be some t.s. winds along the immediate ga/ne fl coast. good bit of rain on the way, but the system is moving quickly enough that severe flooding is unlikely. it also hadn't rained here since august 30th, so the light rain outside here now is welcome. 93L--well, since tammy isn't looping out into the gulf like the models were generally progging, and the upper low out there isn't looking at all tropical, the energy is concentrating near the yucatan. there's been a good fetch off the pacific for a few days... stan was the benefactor, but now that stan is a surface trough along the mexican pacific coast the stuff is running across a little better. add to that the sharp wind shift from the easterly flow across the gulf and there's a really good convergence area. since the upper low is still backing westward, its diffluent effect should increase over this area.. even bring a little ridging in. should the system move nne ahead of the oncoming shortwave, there is a chance it could form a tropical cyclone and deepen baroclinically as it approaches western florida. still formative right now, but this could range from a rainy low to a solid tropical cyclone. older nogaps runs weren't showing it come up, so it could potentially meander ne or even stall over the gulf. when/if something more substantive shows up we'll have a better idea. the origin of this feature might actually be that disturbance that was on the pacific side of mexico from stan.. that it pulled inland over guatemala. 94L--yeah, why not. the eastern atlantic now has a very low latitude contribution, with healthy convergence and some ridging aloft. it's effectively sheltered from the deepening upper trough over the central atlantic.. for now. at that latitude, any development would be very slow due to weaker coriolis deflection. near p.r.--nothing doing... the peristent convection in the region has puffed out. if there's any mid level vorticity in the mess it is tailing tammy nw. former td 19/upper low--se of bermuda theres this amalgam of the upper low at the core of the deep trough in the atlantic, and the swirl from td 19 following it westward. since its trapped under the ridge and has a makeshift surface reflection, am wondering if it will try to dig down. also has the energy from that hybrid that earlier model runs were taking across.. or at least what didn't go into that low near the azores (which recently got a st 1.5 t-rating, but is not tropical). there ya go, a follow-up to stan, maybe another, and the odd wildcard. two more names and then we're speaking greek. HF 1921z05october
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