looks like tammy will landfall as a 45kt tropical storm at cumberland island, ga around 8pm local. the nhc forecast track taking it nw keeps looking goofy and hopefully they'll adjust it right with the next cycle. center of the storm may pass close to here late morning tomorrow, i'm thinking. we stand to get a couple inches of rain overnight and tomorrow morning. haven't seen any real wind reports, but st simons and savannah should get a good squall or two in the next few hrs.. maybe some ts force gusts. kinda doubt any ts force winds will encroach on land, but they're definitely occurring off the ga coast right now. as for 93L... the upper trough digging on its western side has really swept into what looked like a formative low earlier. there's still a sharp bend in the surface wind flow northeast of cancun... which should migrate ne towards sw florida and potentially form something over the next day or two. then again the energy from this system may refocus further southeast in the nw caribbean. synoptic pattern looks right for another formation, but i'm not buying into that nne track anymore.. best bet is either s. florida... and if something crosses there it will probably turn north and head for the eastern carolinas. i very much doubt that more than a tropical storm would cross florida by the weekend. it is worth noting that most of the globals show something trapped east of the se us after the weekend. this will either be a system or a bunch of energy that gets caught under the next ridge and may try to develop as well. the processes forcing this pattern are set to repeat, so we're by no means done after this week. actually a pretty good shot that the 94L system will act up if it can gain a little latitude. long term track would tend to be nw, slowly. it's way out there and an atypical thing for a system that far east in october to bother the continent. the upper low north of there is a longshot at a cold-to-warm core conversion system, but only showing the slightest of tendencies in that direction. HF 2242z05october
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