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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
various thoughts
      Wed Oct 05 2005 08:13 PM

Not quite so sure we'll get something out of 93L. If it happens, I think it'll be the perturbation currently in the NW Caribbean as opposed to the main feature heading toward Florida. The upper-level environment just isn't terribly conducive to tropical development; anything that does form, I think, is more likely to be of a dubious tropical nature at best. Wouldn't be surprised to see something subtropical or extratropical form out of that, really.

Tammy is also of dubious tropical nature. Recon has found an ever-eroding temperature gradient inside versus outside of the storm -- currently even -- and earlier reported a flat temperature gradient that has continued to get flatter. The strongest winds are being found well away from the center in the NE quadrant, generally 50-100mi away from the center. The cyclone phase analyses from all available models imply a hybrid structure with only a shallow warm core. Given the satellite appearance and the available data, I don't think Tammy is a tropical cyclone and is instead a subtropical storm. However, that has little bearing on what we'll get out of the system, just that the landfall area will see little in the way of significant weather while areas well-removed from the storm center are going to see the brunt of the storm. I do think Tammy will start to pivot to the NW and WNW and slow down with time; the ridge to the north still remains, the trough projected to swing through is still well to the west, and the storm is at the extent of the upper-low now. Think this one ends up somewhere between Albany, GA and the Savannah River tomorrow.

94L...not too keen on its impacts. That deep upper level trough will kill it if it gains too much latitude and unless the pattern significantly changes in the tropics/subtropics, it's a goner by 50W no matter what happens. I don't really see the pattern changing, so unless it gets its act together shortly it's likely just another depression for the record books at best. The low way up there at 40N/20-25W...those happen on occasion, not a likely candidate for anything interesting. Should slide south and sit there for the next few days, though. The upper low over the subtropical central Atlantic similarly is not likely to result in a whole lot, though the GFS develops something along the convergence zone to its south and drives it toward the north and northwest. Not buying that yet, just like the CV storm it's been advertising.

Anything we get close-in in the short term is likely to be another Michael (from last year) at best -- a hybrid system that moves at a fairly decent clip but brings a couple-few inches of rain to some area. That's the end result from Tammy and the likely end result from 93L...I just think the environment is more conducive to hybrid/extratropical development, particularly as that upper trough approaches from the central US, than anything tropical. Time will tell.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast MikeCAdministrator Wed Oct 05 2005 08:13 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast lawgator   Wed Oct 05 2005 03:15 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Beaumont, TX   Wed Oct 05 2005 03:24 PM
. * * Can't make sense of the data Rasvar   Wed Oct 05 2005 03:42 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Storm Hunter   Wed Oct 05 2005 03:40 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Thunderbird12   Wed Oct 05 2005 04:04 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Yikes   Wed Oct 05 2005 04:03 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast crpeavley   Wed Oct 05 2005 04:26 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast damejune2   Wed Oct 05 2005 04:40 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast CoalCracker   Wed Oct 05 2005 04:51 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast damejune2   Wed Oct 05 2005 04:55 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast bobbutts   Wed Oct 05 2005 05:30 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Random Chaos   Wed Oct 05 2005 05:39 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Colleen A.   Wed Oct 05 2005 05:46 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Jane219ga   Wed Oct 05 2005 05:55 PM
. * * quick HanKFranK   Wed Oct 05 2005 06:43 PM
. * * various thoughts Clark   Wed Oct 05 2005 08:13 PM
. * * Re: various thoughts Hugh   Wed Oct 05 2005 08:57 PM
. * * Re: various thoughts dave foster   Wed Oct 05 2005 09:29 PM
. * * Re: various thoughts Hugh   Wed Oct 05 2005 09:36 PM
. * * Re: various thoughts dave foster   Wed Oct 05 2005 10:54 PM
. * * Re: various thoughts Convergence   Wed Oct 05 2005 11:07 PM
. * * Re: various thoughts Colleen A.   Wed Oct 05 2005 09:08 PM
. * * Re: various thoughts GuppieGrouper   Wed Oct 05 2005 09:12 PM
. * * Re: quick Yikes   Wed Oct 05 2005 08:10 PM
. * * Re: quick Hugh   Wed Oct 05 2005 08:01 PM
. * * Re: quick Storm Hunter   Wed Oct 05 2005 08:16 PM
. * * Re: quick HanKFranK   Wed Oct 05 2005 09:10 PM
. * * Re: quick suziqt   Wed Oct 05 2005 09:50 PM
. * * Re: quick Hugh   Wed Oct 05 2005 09:24 PM
. * * Re: quick Clark   Wed Oct 05 2005 09:56 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Big Kahuna   Wed Oct 05 2005 05:25 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast charlottefl   Wed Oct 05 2005 05:09 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast HCW   Wed Oct 05 2005 05:17 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Wxwatcher2   Wed Oct 05 2005 06:56 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast laureg   Wed Oct 05 2005 07:17 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast GuppieGrouper   Wed Oct 05 2005 07:09 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Hugh   Wed Oct 05 2005 07:56 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Random Chaos   Wed Oct 05 2005 05:29 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Storm Hunter   Wed Oct 05 2005 04:36 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Thunderbird12   Wed Oct 05 2005 04:43 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast crpeavley   Wed Oct 05 2005 12:05 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast orlandocanewatcher   Wed Oct 05 2005 08:35 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Genesis   Wed Oct 05 2005 09:16 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast dave foster   Wed Oct 05 2005 10:58 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast HURRICANELONNY   Wed Oct 05 2005 07:51 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Hugh   Wed Oct 05 2005 07:58 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Thunderbird12   Wed Oct 05 2005 10:50 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast bobbutts   Wed Oct 05 2005 09:22 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast bobbutts   Wed Oct 05 2005 09:35 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Tropics Guy   Wed Oct 05 2005 10:43 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast oklahoma   Wed Oct 05 2005 10:01 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast ZooKeeper   Wed Oct 05 2005 11:33 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast HanKFranK   Wed Oct 05 2005 10:08 AM
. * * TD 19 Making a comeback? and the Stan Rainband Bloodstar   Wed Oct 05 2005 10:46 AM
. * * Re: TD 19 Making a comeback? and the Stan Rainband Clark   Wed Oct 05 2005 10:57 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Wxwatcher2   Wed Oct 05 2005 09:28 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast GuppieGrouper   Wed Oct 05 2005 08:06 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast LisaA   Wed Oct 05 2005 10:48 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast craigm   Wed Oct 05 2005 11:04 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Brown Brown   Wed Oct 05 2005 09:42 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Clark   Wed Oct 05 2005 10:00 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Hugh   Wed Oct 05 2005 09:46 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast dave foster   Wed Oct 05 2005 09:57 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Hugh   Wed Oct 05 2005 10:01 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast dave foster   Wed Oct 05 2005 10:30 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Brown Brown   Wed Oct 05 2005 10:06 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast tpratch   Wed Oct 05 2005 10:35 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Storm Hunter   Wed Oct 05 2005 10:13 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Brown Brown   Wed Oct 05 2005 10:23 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* Convergence   Wed Oct 05 2005 10:29 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* Brown Brown   Wed Oct 05 2005 10:36 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Storm Hunter   Wed Oct 05 2005 10:51 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Brown Brown   Wed Oct 05 2005 11:06 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* jbmusic   Wed Oct 05 2005 11:14 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast tpratch   Wed Oct 05 2005 11:19 PM
. * * fun with follow-ons HanKFranK   Thu Oct 06 2005 02:20 AM
. * * Re: fun with follow-ons Susan in Jupiter, FL   Thu Oct 06 2005 04:56 AM
. * * Re: fun with follow-ons Random Chaos   Thu Oct 06 2005 06:31 AM
. * * Re: fun with follow-ons Hugh   Thu Oct 06 2005 06:54 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Tracey   Wed Oct 05 2005 11:11 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Brown Brown   Wed Oct 05 2005 11:09 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Convergence   Wed Oct 05 2005 11:07 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Brown Brown   Wed Oct 05 2005 11:15 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Brown Brown   Wed Oct 05 2005 10:27 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast La Nimo   Wed Oct 05 2005 10:30 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Sarasota3G   Wed Oct 05 2005 10:44 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast ralphfl   Wed Oct 05 2005 09:45 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Big Kahuna   Wed Oct 05 2005 11:07 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Fletch   Wed Oct 05 2005 11:13 AM
. * * 93L Thunderbird12   Wed Oct 05 2005 11:38 AM
. * * Re: 93L Beaumont, TX   Wed Oct 05 2005 11:46 AM
. * * Re: 93L emackl   Wed Oct 05 2005 11:55 AM
. * * Re: 93L Beaumont, TX   Wed Oct 05 2005 03:15 PM
. * * Re: 93L Brad in Miami   Wed Oct 05 2005 11:40 AM
. * * Re: 93L CoalCracker   Wed Oct 05 2005 12:14 PM
. * * Re: 93L Genesis   Wed Oct 05 2005 12:27 PM
. * * Re: 93L Goosus   Wed Oct 05 2005 12:48 PM
. * * Re: 93L sara33   Wed Oct 05 2005 12:18 PM
. * * Re: 93L MissBecky   Wed Oct 05 2005 12:17 PM
. * * Re: 93L dave foster   Wed Oct 05 2005 02:04 PM
. * * Re: 93L Genesis   Wed Oct 05 2005 02:09 PM
. * * Re: 93L Thunderbird12   Wed Oct 05 2005 02:28 PM
. * * Re: 93L scottsvb   Wed Oct 05 2005 02:41 PM
. * * Re: 93L Ed in Va   Wed Oct 05 2005 02:45 PM
. * * Re: 93L scottsvb   Wed Oct 05 2005 03:00 PM
. * * Re: 93L ralphfl   Wed Oct 05 2005 03:04 PM
. * * Re: 93L HanKFranK   Wed Oct 05 2005 03:24 PM
. * * Re: 93L Thunderbird12   Wed Oct 05 2005 11:46 AM
. * * Re: 93L sara33   Wed Oct 05 2005 11:45 AM
. * * Re: 93L Big Kahuna   Wed Oct 05 2005 11:54 AM
. * * Re: 93L Bloodstar   Wed Oct 05 2005 11:58 AM
. * * Re: 93L sara33   Wed Oct 05 2005 11:50 AM
. * * Re: 93L Thunderbird12   Wed Oct 05 2005 11:47 AM
. * * Re: 93L Steve H1   Wed Oct 05 2005 12:22 PM
. * * Re: 93L Storm Hunter   Wed Oct 05 2005 12:46 PM
. * * Re: 93L rmbjoe1954   Wed Oct 05 2005 01:27 PM
. * * Re: 93L emackl   Wed Oct 05 2005 12:58 PM
. * * Re: 93L Margie   Wed Oct 05 2005 01:37 PM
. * * Re: 93L emackl   Wed Oct 05 2005 01:42 PM
. * * Re: 93L Big Kahuna   Wed Oct 05 2005 02:05 PM
. * * Re: 90L Bloodstar   Wed Oct 05 2005 02:11 PM
. * * Re: 90L MapMaster   Wed Oct 05 2005 02:27 PM
. * * Re: 90L HURRICANELONNY   Wed Oct 05 2005 02:37 PM
. * * Re: 93L Margie   Wed Oct 05 2005 02:05 PM
. * * Re: 94L HCW   Wed Oct 05 2005 01:56 PM
. * * Re: 94L Big Kahuna   Wed Oct 05 2005 02:11 PM
. * * Re: 93L scottsvb   Wed Oct 05 2005 01:42 PM
. * * Re: 93L Rabbit   Wed Oct 05 2005 01:25 PM
. * * Re: 93L Beaumont, TX   Wed Oct 05 2005 11:51 AM
. * * Re: 93L Thunderbird12   Wed Oct 05 2005 11:59 AM
. * * Re: 93L Genesis   Wed Oct 05 2005 11:56 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Margie   Wed Oct 05 2005 11:30 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Thunderbird12   Wed Oct 05 2005 11:03 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Hugh   Wed Oct 05 2005 08:09 AM

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