forget all the early modeling was pushing our yucatan disturbance nne: the focus of that system has shifted east, south of cuba now. there's actually a good bit of convergence down there and the shear isn't as much as an issue... maybe that mid-level vorticity to the northwest will induce a surface feature there as well. if something stirs up it will be more of a bahamas issue, maybe southeast or east florida... but do the math in the long-run--if it develops and rides up ahead of the oncoming shortwave, it'll make an intensification run up the eastern seaboard. so yeah, big deal if it closes off. the eastern carolinas up to new england would be the endgame of such a system, so stay appraised. 94L may beat it to classification. the system has gotten incrementally further from the lowest latitudes and is in a modestly good environment with some improvement.. as the trough to the northwest will likely force ridging over the top of the weak system. this may be classified during thursday or friday. watch the disturbed weather persistently firing near the center of the upper low that sits at the 24N51W in that upper trough axis. some globals favor a surface system developing there, and as long as it moves in tandem with the larger upper system it can continue to work the system downward in the atmosphere. if the convection keeps going as it has been, expect the TWO to start picking up on it tomorrow. outside chance another low forms in the disturbed weather riding up east of tammy. minor model support for such a thing... with all the confused feedback in the models it's hard to know what to buy into. HF 0620z06october
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