Looking at the dieing burst of convection south of Cuba, that definately looks like a blob of nothingness. The models aren't even initializing 93L in that location - 93L is initialized between the tip of the Yucatan and the end of Cuba in an area that looks to have very little convection. I'm seeing some convection starting up there this morning, and some weak turning, but there just aren't enough convective cells yet. This system lacks the time to develop deep convection and get organized before reaching Florida. If it had another week over water, we could see something out of it, but it doesn't.
94L is getting better organized...but it's hard to tell what it's doing since there isn't a floater on it and it's right on the break point between the western atlantic SSD frame and the slower updating eastern atlantic SSD frame. Using GHCC GOES instead, I can see that the system's deep convection has weekened overnight, but it still is presenting a formidable picture on IR. There is little evidence of turning, and its organization is lacking. However, it still has several days before it reaches the any islands, so it will be a system we will have to continue to watch. There is no SAL out there to affect it, but I'm also not really seeing anything that will make this system bloom. I'd guess we're in for another weak storm in the near term. We'll have to see how its track moves before guessing at the long term.
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 43390
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center