Quote: Looking at the dieing burst of convection south of Cuba, that definately looks like a blob of nothingness. The models aren't even initializing 93L in that location - 93L is initialized between the tip of the Yucatan and the end of Cuba in an area that looks to have very little convection. I'm seeing some convection starting up there this morning, and some weak turning, but there just aren't enough convective cells yet. This system lacks the time to develop deep convection and get organized before reaching Florida. If it had another week over water, we could see something out of it, but it doesn't. --RC
Uh.... 93L is initialized where the center of circulation is. Looking at the latest WV loop.... there is moisture there, albeit not a lot of it. It's going to be slow to develop if it develops at all. The problem to me isn't lack of convection, but more the upper level winds just are fighting it too much. Interestingly, the low level center seems to have stopped moving overnight, after moving rather briskly yesrerday.
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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