Quote: Looking at the dieing burst of convection south of Cuba, that definately looks like a blob of nothingness. The models aren't even initializing 93L in that location - 93L is initialized between the tip of the Yucatan and the end of Cuba in an area that looks to have very little convection. I'm seeing some convection starting up there this morning, and some weak turning, but there just aren't enough convective cells yet. This system lacks the time to develop deep convection and get organized before reaching Florida. If it had another week over water, we could see something out of it, but it doesn't. --RC
Uh.... 93L is initialized where the center of circulation is. Looking at the latest WV loop.... there is moisture there, albeit not a lot of it. It's going to be slow to develop if it develops at all. The problem to me isn't lack of convection, but more the upper level winds just are fighting it too much. Interestingly, the low level center seems to have stopped moving overnight, after moving rather briskly yesrerday.
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 44587
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center