the way things are going we're probably going into a quiet time. there have been several systems in the western atlantic that haven't done anything, and the eastpac quit popping storms, which is the usual signal that we've passed the active part of the season and nothing but the odd baroclinic or pattern-pulse system in the western caribbean will get going. pattern we've been in is supportive for baroclinic type systems... it's effectively suppressed caribbean activity, but the best chance for something would be that model phantom that gets slung from bermuda to the canadian maritimes. thus far it hasn't made any overt appearance. the festering mess near jamaica is forecast by models to persist even after the upper trough to the north pulls away and a more tradition upper ridging pattern builds in. at this rate that won't happen for a while. aside from last minute tammy and oddball vince... since stan departed stage pacific there hasn't been anything robust looking in the part of the atlantic that troubles us. with an inactive mjo phase and lethargic, persistent shear pattern over the areas that could do anything, whatever comes will be slow if at all. it's non tropical, but that former subtropical depression is now sliding wsw off the jersey coast. they're getting drenched in the coastal northeast by these systems... with the onshore flow forecast to persist until the westerlies sweep in to clear the area later this week. likely to see severe flooding in the region from new jersey up to maine for the next few days. HF 1431z12october
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