Ok this is my first forecast which I will change again tomorrow night cause I still dont know exactly what will happen between 36-60hrs...... What we have here is an agreement with the models that it will be very close to Cancun very late tomorrow night. Models all agree on this but some are spread south of cancun to just missing land. Right now looking at data from mid and upper level winds over the gulf and southern U.S shows heights droping over there as a trough moves out of the plains and into the ohio valley by Friday. Like the NHC says this will slide the ridge sw over the BOC and cause a weakness in the eastern gulf....this would suggest a slow movement NNW or N between 86-88W on Friday......In the meantime upper level support will dive rapidly south over the plains into the western and northern gulf Saturday into Sunday.. This is where the models spread out...... the GFS along with the GFDL has a slow movement saturday just NE of the Yucitan moving ahead of the trough ene towards NW Cuba........it feels the big trough and then rides up it near the Keys to near Miami and the Bahamas.....for now Im going to disregard this and here is why....the first trough will try to erode the current Gulf ridge and slide it sw and it should pick it up enough to move off the Yucitan slowly northward and maybe a bend NNE late Friday night into Saturday..... There is nothing to support right now that it will move slowly ene off Cancun towards Cuba...the westerlys will be too far N and wont come down until the main trough digs in later in the weekend..... The Ukmet solution has it just N of the GFS and drifts it ene then feeling the main digging trough to races ene towards Sw Florida and out near Miami give or take. Again possible but I dont see the early ene drift.....that leads to the NOGAPS...pretty reliable model....shows Wilma more meandering for 12-24hrs near where the Ukmet has her,, but instead of drifting her ene,,does N or NNE before feeling the trough and racing NE along the cold front.....Right now,, we dont know which will win out but we will know by Friday morning cause we will see where near Cancun Wilma comes inland or just skims the coast and how far off the northern coast it gets....if it does...then Im inline with the Nogaps..if it stays south of Cancun and makes landfall ,,then it could meander there for a day until the main trough picks it up,,,,but it will be on the tail end of the trough and get pushed more ENE towards NW Cuba,, near the keys and Miami and Nassua,,,,,another words,,, further N if gets past Cancun the more it will have a chance to go NE when the main trough comes in,,,further south,,it will be on the tail end of the trough. So its going to be close on where she goes the next 24hrs,..then friday,,,lets see if it goes N of Cancun,,how much N or NNE it drifts before being picked up.......... Will update tomorrow night to see where this comes in by Cancun.
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